The Market Mon

Wow, what a difference 3 days makes!   Stocks started off 2010 with a nice run, and all the broad market ETF's made marginal new highs this past Tuesday.  

Then BAM - the one-two punch.  First punch was the Obama talking about taxing the banks to recover all the TARP money - the TARP money they already paid back!  Second punch was talk about financial regulation where banks are not allowed to trade for their own accounts.  This double whammy whacked financials and took down the good as well as the bad.  Goldman was down 6% for the week (despite record earnings), JP-Morgan was down 10% and lowly Citigroup was down 17% on some disappointing earnings.  For the same period, SPY was down about 4%.

Let's go through the positions.

AAPL - Made a marginal new high closing this past Tuesday at 215.04.  Then the market came in and whacked it down and it closed for the week at 197.75.   On the technical side the stock closed just barely below the lower range band at 197.94.  Volume swelled on this selloff.

The upcoming week is going to be a big one for AAPL.  

First earnings are out Monday after the close and average estimates are for 2.06 per share.  Second is the big Tablet announcement scheduled for Wednesday.  Analysts are expecting something between a tablet with a touch-screen keyboard, and a Mac in tablet form.  On the downside, analysts expect the device to canniblize sales of both the iPhone on the lower end and the Mac on the upper end.  Net result is a wash for earnings but trouble for e-reader makers Sony and Amazon.   We'll be watching but are going to try and hang in there for the long term.

ABVT - The stock is hanging tough and the company announced connectivity with data center companies Telehouse and Equinix (EQIX).   With my entry at $66.70, I clearly top-ticked this trade.  I'm sticking with this trade and I believe earnings will come through.  IBD says "Find support in latest pullback to 10-week line.

AUY - I top-ticked this entry on Yamana, but at this point i'm sticking with it for Gold exposure. It has a very similar pattern to GLD.

C - There's not much good to say about Citi, except maybe that they are turning a corner.  There seems to be more upside than downside, but its going to take some time.  Analysts are estimating profits of 7 cents a share in 2010 and 34 cents a share in 2011.  So from a EPS perspective, they appear to be turning a corner.  Q1 2010 results should tell us whether they are headed in a positive direction.

CML - Still up slightly on this position.  Compellent won the Infoworld Technology award for the 3rd straight year on its SAN storage technology. 

DIA, EEM, EFA, SPY, XLB - All the EFT's got battered this week.   I'm up on SPY, DIA and EEM and down on the others.  I'm an investor now, not a trader so i'm hanging in there.

HMSY - Now loaded up with HMSY on this recent rally which was sharply reversed on the news that Healthcare reform might not be going through after all.  Stock sliced through the lower range band on the daily, but still well above the weekly.  Looking to lighten up on a rally here.

NEOG - No news here, market dragging us down.

SXCI - Pelted by the apparent failure of Health care reform passing the congress.   The stock had a raft of analyst upgrades in the past 2 weeks.  Technically, the stock appears to be rolling over and i'm caught long 100 shares with an entry of $54.12.

USO - Should have taken profits recently at $41, oh well.  Back in the hole again on this position.

XLB - Select sector materials, now up only slightly on this position.

YUM - On a sad note, Glen Bell Jr, founder of Taco Bell died this past week.  He was 86 years old.   "The entire Taco Bell family of franchisees and employees are deeply saddened by the loss of the founder of Taco Bell. Glen Bell was a visionary and innovator in the restaurant industry, as well as a dedicated family man," said Greg Creed, president and chief concept officer of Taco Bell. "His innovative business acumen started out of humble beginnings and created one of the nation's largest restaurant chains in Taco Bell. Mr. Bell introduced an entire nation to the taco and Mexican cuisine."

CD Review

AAPL - Speculation is swirling around Apple's new tablet device.  Details are sketchy, but the device is expected to be the game-changer that the iPhone was for the cell-phone industry. 

It looks like the e-reader category has finally reached the mainstream of consumer electronics thanks to the Amazon Kindle and an endorsement from Oprah. 

On the technical side, the stock is bumping up against an all-time high and i'm expecting a move up to $220 shortly.  Cramer has a target of $300 and many brokerages have targets in the $240 to $260 range. 

AUY - AUY and GLD are now both below the daily range bands, but still positive on the weekly range banks.   On the weekly chart, GLD is sitting right at the lower range bands, so its probably a good time to add to Gold positions if you're a long-term bull.  I'm not in a hurry to add new positions.

C - Financials are rounding a small bottom and downside momentum appears to be waning.

CML - Compellent had a good week last week and IBD points out that the chart has made an entire cup-with-a-handle retracement since its IPO back in 2007.  On the fundamental side, EPS surged 233% as sales rose 31% to 32 million.  For the current quarter, analysts expect a 50% EPS growth with another %30 rise in sales.

DIA, EEM, EFA, SPY, XLB - Despite a rocky last day of 2009, all these ETF's are still looking strong and well above the daily and weekly range bands.   EFA is the sloppiest of the bunch approaching the lower range band.

HMSY - Is the chart of the week, see my separate post on that.

KO - Coke is sitting right on the lower range band and appears to be taking a rest, probably a result of the recent strenght in USD.

MYRX - The daily is clearly in a downtrend since the company's decision to acquire Javelin Pharmaceuticals.

NEOG - Stock continues on an uptrend after recent good earnings. 

SXCI - No news this past week except for a technical alert: "SmarTrend's Trend Spotter Sees Continued Upward Momentum on Shares of SXC Health Solutions (SXCI) - 12/30/2009."

USO - Stock had a crossover on the daily range band to the upside and the weekly chart remains positive.

YUM - No real news, stock is stuck in a sideways pattern.

CD Review

Taxable

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.30% 05/17/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

SPY made a new closing high for the year at last Thursday's close

The chart on the left shows SPY with price bars painted pink for bars that made a new 52-week-closing high.

The lower portion of the chart shows a count of SP-500 stocks making 52-week closing highs on that date.

Last Thursday was the 3rd highest day on the chart with 114 stocks in the SP-500 making new 52-week closing highs. This close forms the 3rd lower high in a wedge formation and shows the power of last Thursday's action - even though volume was on the light side.

StockFinder is an amazing tool and this is just a small example of what you can find out with a bit of work and imagination.

Back to positions review....

AAPL had a great week, will cover that stock in a separate post.

AUY - Yamana Gold is weakening a bit.  I'm starting to think AUY is a poor proxy for the price of gold and I should just buy GLD instead.   The only plus is that AUY has a dividend and GLD does not.

C - Not much going on with Citi.  I'm in the hole about 1/2 point with my cost at about 3.80.

CML - Compellent closed at a new 52-week high on Friday.  IBD ran a piece in the 'Stocks on the News' column with a headline "Compellent Clears base in Light Trade".  Analysts are expecting a 50% earnings growth when they report on Feb 10th.  IBD also points out that volume has dried up since its breakout day on 2x normal volume back on Dec 18th.   I'm up about $1.50 per share with my average entry at 22.25.

DIA - SPY made a new yearly closing high on Friday, but SPY did not follow suit.  I'm sticking with it and considering it part of my broad market exposure.

EEM - Emerging Market's ETF fund.  Chart has been withering lately and not keeping pace with SPY.

EFA - This position was added this week in both accounts as part of myself working toward a target allocation which i'll cover in a later post, probably in the coming week.

HMSY make a new all-time closing high on Friday.   No news this week, earnings are not due until Feb 18th.  Company will present at the JP Morgan Healthcare conference on January 11th at 5PM EST.

KO - Coke is basing nicely here and proabably in a good add-to position.  After making a 52-week high back on 12/11/2009, the chart has found some support and is basing.    With a 2.8% dividend yield, and a PE of 21, this stock is looking good.

MYRX - A New York law firm is investigating possible breach of fiduciary duty by the board of Javelin Pharmaceuticals by selling out to Myraid Pharama at the equivalent of $1.50 per share.  Clearly some sabre-rattling going on here with Javelin stock at $1.27 per share.    In the press release, they mention the stock "recently" traded at $2.00 per share (back in September), but since traded as low as just over $1.00 per share.  Trying to goose management into getting a better offer no doubt.

NEOG - Stock is coming up againsts the recent all-time high at 24.34 and the shares are stalling just short of the all-time high.   Going over recent share sales, a bunch of executives sold shares in the fall of 2009, but the shares are up about 12% on average since they sold.  These sales look more like protecting profits than reflecting any underlying weakless in the business.

SPY - Hit a new year-to-date high last Friday.  My target assett allocation indicates 28% SP-500 (SPY) so i'm going to add-to on weakness.

SXCI - Stock make a new all-time high on Friday closing at 55.35.  The health-care stocks have blown above multi-month resistance that has been caused by uncertainty caused by health-care reform now in debate in the US-Congress.

USO - I've been laboring under this position for almost a year now.  I'm tired of paying money to the exchanges to keep rolling these contracts over and paying no dividends.  A much better choice would be sticking with OIH  - Oil Services Holders.  But there is a downside.  If the equity market collapses, OIH will implode while USO will hold up.    Conclusion:  pick a portion of my account that should be invested in energy invest 25% in USO and 75% in OIH.

XLB - Select sector materials - closed just short of a new all-time high.   The sell-off in gold and materials have kept this EFT from falling through the floor.  Need a pure-play on the anti-inflation-anti-fiat-currency-camp and haven't found it yet.  Real Estate perhaps?

YUM - Great article in WSJ.com that I re-tweeted about how YUM is trying to cater to the 18-25 age crowd in with Taco Bell in India.   Need to get polished up on my Twitter-tools.

CD Review

Taxable

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.30% 05/17/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

AAPL - Stocks is hugging the bottom of the lower range band and is negative on the daily range bands.  Peter Worden ran a video earlier this week showing how AAPL is weakening technically and several indicators are rolling to the downside for the first time since the market lows.  I'm on the fence and long 50 shares with entry just below 190.

AUY - Stock is now below the daily range bands with the big rollover in gold.  The daily chart of GLD has also crossed the daily range bands to the downside today.  I'm in the hole just about $1 on this position with my entry at 12.24.

C - Citi is a pretty wounded animal here and CEO Vikram Pandit is taking some heat in the press for being a bit too hasty in pricing the secondary offering to repay TARP.  In fact the secondary had to be priced below the market and it was so badly handled the Treasury decided to hold off on selling its position for a better price.  Current shareholders are being badly diluted here, but with the ride down from 50 to 3, shareholders are basically wiped out anyway.

BTW - Most of Citi's 20 cent pop on Friday was due to index rebalancing in the SP-500 in which index funds needed to buy a monster amount of Citi stock.  In fact NYSE Euronext had an all-time record in daily share volume on Friday trading 3.2 billion shares in one day.

So what's in the future for Citi?  Probably a 1 for 10 reverse stock split which which take the stock price up to 30 again and then it will get whacked back down to 3 all over again.  Anyway, with my entry at $3.82, this is like a call option with no expiration.

DIA - Not much going on with the major indices with most of the big money players on the sidelines until early next year.  Up about 2% on this position.

EEM - Emerging Markets ETF - not much going on, up about 3% on this position.

HMSY - This chart is a thing of beauty and note how volume on up days has swamped volume on down days for many weeks now.  Tradingmarkets.com indicates continued buying pressure in the shares.

KO - The stock hit resistance sharply at 60 and got whacked back down to just under 57 on increasing volume.  This may be caused by recent strength of the US dollar.  I can't find any other developments in the news that would cause this pullback.

MYRX - The stock had a 6% selloff on monster volume on Friday when Myriad announced it was acquiring Javelin pharmeceuticals (JAV) which is traded on the Amex.   I'm probably going to close out this position to square my tax position and lower my realized losses for the year.

NEOG - Neogen is continuation of a great story here.  The company announced earning of 20 cents a share beating analyst estimates by 1 cent.  The conference call indicates the company has had its 67th consecutive profitable quarter.  The company has had 71 of the past 76 quarters with increases in revenues.    Neogen now has operaitons in the US, Mexico, Europe and China and continues to have great growth prospects with ongoing concern for food and animal feed safety.

Also, the shares split 1 for 1.5. I'm up about 50% and 122% on my positions in this stock

SPY - Similar position to DIA, may take profits for tax re-balancing.

USO - I've been up on this position and i've been down on this position.  In the end i'm right back where I started minus a small amount of premium for options written.  Had I bought OIH (Energy Services Holders) I would be up 30% on this position not counting dividends.  This was a costly lesson although I should mention that OIH is much more volatile than USO and i'm also much more likely to lose 30% on a position in OIH versus USO.

XLB - Select sector materials.  Has cooled of quite a bit with losses in Gold.

YUM - Moved up a bit on Friday in sympathy with Darden (DRI) which had a nice pop on good earnings.

CD Review

Taxable

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.30% 05/17/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

Start planning for next year's asset allocation now, next year will be well under way before you know it!

ABVT is the chart of the week.  The stock made new all-time highs 4 out of 5 days in the past week.  Friday was a particularly good day on excellent volume.  

On the technical side, ABVT moved up to #25 on the IBD-100 this past week and IBD indicates "6% past 57.03 buy point on after pull back to 10-week average."  On the fundamental side, IBD reminds us that this company has more than 2 million miles of Fiber Optic networks cable deployed.

Unfortunately, I took profits in ABVT at $53.30 and missed the last 7 points of the move so this is one that got away.  I'm looking to re-enter on any type of pullback.  The stock split 2-1 back in September and is up 50% since then. I expect it to run to 80 then split 2x1 again probably by end of Q2 2010.

Back to positions review.

AAPL - This stock is looking pretty sick and has had 2 crossovers of the daily range bands to the downside in the past few weeks.  This week's rally failed right at the upper range bands so i'm probably going to take profits this coming week.

AUY - The rally in gold failed in spectacular fashion last Friday and i'm now in the hole slightly on this position.

C - Citi 's is paying off the TARP with a 20 billion dollar stock offering.  That's good news of course, but further diluting current shareholders, but it had to be done.

CML - Stock is moving sideways, no recent news.

DIA - Up decently on this position but DIA seems to have found resistance right at the 105.0 level.   Nothing new to report here, but most components are looking good.  In fact, 25 of 30 components were above the daily range bands.   The only Dow-30 components below the daily range bands are: DD, JPM, KFT, TRV and XOM.

This ETF is a strategy in itself - just buy DIA!  These are all solid, well-managed companies many with multi-national business exposure.  And with the dividend yield over 2.5% (according to Esignal), this ETF is a winner!

EEM - Emerging Markets ETF.  This fund seems to follow the global equity markets and doesn't offer much in the way of diversification, but definitely needs to be part of every long-term portfolio.  Need to work on the allocation.

HMSY - No news since last week, chart is marking time.

KO - This could have been chart of the week (yet again) and i'm up over 13% since my entry at 52 back on 9/14/2009.  This is a DIA component and is a Warren Buffett favorite.

MYRX - No news this past week and chart is marking time.

NEOG - Neogen is due to report earnings this coming Friday.  This is an animal feed and food safety play.  Its total boring and I love it - up up 50% since my entry back in 2007.

SPY - Similar looking chart to DIA but not as strong.  Clearly evidence that additional money going into this market is going to the blue chips (DIA) versus SPY.

USO - Once again i'm down on this position and i'm unhappy with my energy exposure here. The Fast Money guys on CNBC told me a long time ago that USO is a lousy energy play due to the ongoing cost of rolling over the futures contracts.   They indicate that OIH (Energy Services Holdrs) is a much better play because it represents real companies in the energy space that have earnings and pay dividends.   Looking to build a position in OIH going forward.   What can I say - i'm slow to learn sometimes.

XLB - Select materials - metals took a hit recently, but this one is holding up.

YUM - Stock is marking time and I think is somewhat under apprecaiated at the present time.

CD Review

Taxable

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.30% 05/17/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

For now, plan your target asset allocation by sector and get ready to start building.  Next year will be well under way before you know it!

HMSY is the chart of the week.  Its coming up on the right-hand side of a nice little cup formation.  Volume has been decent lately with some mild accumulation in progress. Not much happening on the news front.

AAPL - Stock is resting right at the top of the lower band and is definitely threatening to break below the lower range band.  The stock is up only 2 of the past 14 sessions, and volume has been increasing to the downside here.  

Between Microsoft, Google and Apple, its a clash of the technology titans, particularly in the hand-held device space. I'm starting to think that Apple is holding themselves back by not supporting Verizon's network in the US, since its so much better than AT&T's.  They need to adopt the multi-carrier approach that RIMM has done and do it fast. 

By the way - have you seen AT&T commercials indicating how great their coverage is?  Its their lame attempt to combat Verizon's "There's a map for that" commercials.  Come on AT&T, we know the difference between 2G and 3G and those ads are an insult.  But what else can they do?  Wireless networks are extremely expensive to build and Verizon has a huge lead in the US.

AUY - Gold took a hit.  Still up on this position, but not by much.

C - Financials continue to lauguish, and even industry leaders GS and JPM are taking a break.  On the bright side, BAC announced it was paying off TARP which gave the sector a boost and gave BAC a 5x volume surge.  BAC actually crossed the daily range band to the upside Friday, take a look at the chart to your left.

CML - This is a new position this week stock made a good pop with earnings news back on 11/18 and since has been marking time, moving sideways.

DIA - This ETF seems to have found a lid at about 105.  It could be just marking time here which is okay since its had a pretty good run.

EEM - is up 5% since its recent low back on 11/27/2009.

HMSY - already covered above.

KO - Stock is looking sharp and is up 8 out of the last 10 sessions.

MYRX - The company is in phase 2 trials for a drug called MPC-4326 which is is being developed by Myriad Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for the oral treatment of HIV-1 infection.  The stock didn't do much on the news.

NEOG - Neogen purchased the food safety business of a San Diego, CA based company called Gen-Probe.  Stock is good good, slow and steady.

SPY is looking good, similar chart to DIA

USO- Went negative on the daily range bands last week, but still positive on the weekly.  Looking at the chart to the left, however, the last 2 sell signals have been losers, so i'm staying put on the long side.

XLB - Select sector materials.  Took a big hit on Friday with the sell-off in Gold.

YUM - Took a big on Friday with a story that their same store sales are declining in both the US and mainland China.  But they still expect to grow EPS at 10% next year due to 1,400+ new units in YUM China and Yum Restaurants International (YRI).  Clearly not a positive development, but we're sticking with it for now.

CD Review

Taxable

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.30% 05/17/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

That's it, have a great week and keep your power dry.

KO is the chart of the week.  CNBC ran a special on Coke this past week and it showcased the fact that this global powerhouse is as much about marketing as about the underlying product.  Coke is the most recognized brand on the planet.

On the technical side, Coke broke out to a new 52-week high on Friday.  Volume has been holding up well and i'm up about 8% since my entry just above 52 back on 9/14.

Also, insider Kent Muhtar purchased a total of 2,800 shares on November 6, 2009.  Over the last 5 years insiders have on average purchased 148,259 shares each year.  Presumably, insiders expect the stock price increase to continue.

Back to alphabetical positions review.

AAPL/APVAJ - Apple computer is back from the recent sell-off and has settled just south of the recent closing high at 205.20.  The company announced on Thursday its going to open 40-50 stores in 2010,  with half of them outside the US.   Adding outlets in London, Paris and Shanghai, they are looking to expand the brand globally which is very smart and will benefit from a weakening dollar.

Apple has a lot of competition between RIMM, Palm, Motorola and now Google but still are the kings of cool leading the way in Cramer's Mobile Internet Tsunami.

AUY - Gold continued to a new high this week and Yamana participated. UBS raised their target on Yamana to $15.

C - Citi and the other financials are looking pretty sick.  C and BAC are now below the daily range bands but still above the weekly range bands.   Sector leaders JPM and GS are also below their daily range bands, but holding well above their weekly bands.

Paulson & Co., one of the world's largest hedge fund firms, held 300 million shares of Citigroup (C) at the end of September, according to a regulatory filing late Friday.  This position was added in the past 3 months and was worth 1.45 billion on Sept 30th.

CERN - Cerner is a new position as of last Monday.   I'm going to have to watch this one closely as the chart is showing some signs of distribtion.

DIA - The Dow-30 ETF is looking good.  Components KO, MCD, DIS, HPQ, MSFT, UTX. WMT, and AXP are all looking really good.

EEM - Emerging Markets ETF is looking sharp and ready to breakout above the recent high at 41.50.

HMSY - This chart is a thing of beauty and I only wish I held more.  No news to report this past week.

MYRX - Earnings came out Friday and the company reported its first quarter as an independent company since its spin-off from Myriad Genetics earlier this year.  Since the company has no history as a stand-alone, its hard to get a handle on what the results mean.  But the market liked it and the stock popped on the best volume in about a month.

NEOG - James Herbert, Chief Executive Officer of Neogen Corporation (NEOG) rung the closing bell at the NASDAQ on Friday 11/13/2009.  This stock cap has a small-town time feel.

SPY - Stock looks ready to pop out to a new high for the year on Monday's mutual fund buying.

USO - Stock dropped below the upper range band on Friday, but i'm sticking with it.

XLB - Select Sector Materials, stock has a big distribution day on Thursday, but i'm sticking with it.

YUM - No news this past week, but I found an article from October 30th that the company opened its 13,000th restaurant outside China and the US by YRI - Yum Restaurants.

CD Review

Taxable

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.30% 05/17/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

DISCOVER BK GREENWOOD DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/16/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

ABVT  (Abovenet) is once again the chart of the week.   Earnings came out on Friday and beat expectations with actual earnings of $0.96---22 cents above the consensus estimate. ABVT also issued earnings guidance for next quarter that is above current analyst expectations.

On the technical side, ABVT broke out to a new all-time closing high of 53.71 on good, but not record volume.  

ABVT is #23 on the IBD 100.  IBD's technical blurb indicates “Just above 53.54 buy point after bounce off 10-week average”.

Back to alphabetical positions review. 

AAPL / APVAJ had quite a comeback last week.  After taking about 8 points profit on my first 100 shares, I bought 50-shares last week just under 190 a share.  The stock is rallying back on declining volume, and is presumably going to challenge the upper range band this coming week.    It remains to been seen whether it will break above the upper band at 199.50.

I’m also long the Apple January 150 call, and now I’m in the hole about 10 points.  Looking for a big rebound back to a new all time high by 3^rd week of January.

AUY is once again on the move.  Gold moved out to a new record high this past week.  Several analysts raised targets to 14.75 to 15 about 17% above where it is now.

In his blog post on 10/10 Dr Cthru (http://cthruu.blocks.com) indicates he long a “boatload” of XLG.  Look for higher prices ahead.  IAMGold (IAG) is now #11 in the IBD 100. 

C – Citi hasn’t been able to get out of its own way lately and is below the daily, but above the weekly range bands.   It’s going to be along slog.

DIA is looking sharp and now above both the daily and weekly range bands.  Note how DIA held above the daily range band on this recent sell-off while most major indexes broke down.

EEM – Recently went negative on the daily range bands, but has bounced nicely off the weekly range band on the weekly chart.

HMSY – This chart is a thing of beauty and this position is a screaming add-to.  Fundamentals are smoking also.

KO – This stock had a nice rebound this past week and never went negative on the daily or weekly range bands.  Their bottling division (CCH) had good earnings this past week.  The chart is a thing of beauty, but volume has been tepid in the past week.

MYRX – Myraid Pharma has cooled off since the big news back in October about its oral anti-AIDS formulation. 

NEOG has gone negative on the daily range bands, but seems to have found support at $30.  Sticking it it long-term.

SPY – Up nicely on this position and I’m sticking with it.

USO – gapped down this past week, but seems to have found support on the top of the daily range bands.  Staying positive for now.

XLB – Select Sector Materials ETF has been a rocky ride lately, triggering a series of buys and sells on the daily range bands lately.  I’m sticking with it as an inflation play.

YUM – Is looking really good and was started as a buy this past week by Janney Capital Markets.  Chart is moving sideways, but has come back recently on good volume after this recent sell-off.

CD Review

Taxable

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

DISCOVER BK GREENWOOD DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/16/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

Need to buy some CD’s in my Taxable account this week.

Abovenet (ABVT) is the chart of the week. 

We had a convincing breakout of the 28-bar range-bands back on 9/23/2009 and again on Friday 10/23/2009.  IBD says "Keeps weekly closes above 10-week line since July, thin stock."  IBD has a composite rating of 98 and gives it A- on Acumulation/Distribution

No earnings on the horizon and news is quiet

Now back to alphabetical positions review.

AAPL - Long Apple stock and well in the money.  Cramer loves this stock and calls the greatest growth story in the market now.  His price target of $300 comes from estimates for next year of making $13 a share.  Based on their growth rate of 30%, he says growth managers will pay 30-times the $13 a share earnings or $390 a share.  He dropped the extra $90 just because he didn't think people would believe him.

Seasonally, we have the wind at our back since the 4th quarter calendar year is typically the strongest for Apple stock with a seasonal peak just before MacWorld in the 3rd week of January.

APVAJ- Apple Jan 150 call. The stocks seems to have run out of buyers at this level and needs to consolidate the recent gains before going higher.  $200 is psychological support for now.

AUY - Yamana Gold has been marking time after a recent breakout.  Earning due November 3rd.

C - The 25-top paid executives at Citi are going to have their pay cut by as much as 50% according to the government pay czar.  This is yet another blow to free market-capitalism, but with the political climate being what it is, nobody feels too sorry for these highly-paid bank execs.   On the technical side, the stock is above the weekly range bands, and still hanging above the lower range band on the daily range bands.

DIA - Down about a buck on this position, but sticking with it for general market exposure.

EEM - Emerging Markets ETF.  Daily and weekly range bands pointing upward, sticking with it for now.

HMSY - Earnings due this Friday October 30th, so we have to watch this one carefully.  Could be an opportunity to double-down on a sell-off.

KO - Stock is coming down against the lower range band.  Red bars greater than green bars this past week.

MYRX - Myraid Pharmaceuticals.  Some news came out last Friday: "Myriad Pharma's Azixa is efficacious in a model of human brain cancer and its activity is additive with Avastin."  Stock is hanging above upper daily upper range band.

NEOG - Stock is moving up quietly and is about to break above the upper range band once again.  Probably a good add-to at this point

SPY - Well in the money on this one for now and sticking with it.  As I said in my weekly update, I think its a forgone conclusion stocks will be higher at the end of the year.

SXCI - Stock is now #3 on the IBD-100 and has been on the IBD 100 since January 0f 2009.  Stock gave me a bit of a scare this week and pulled back to the breakout point at 47.50.  Red bars bigger than green bars this past week.   Earnings due out before the market open on November 5th.  No news this past week.

USO - Oil cooled off a big this week, but still above both the upper and lower range bands.

XLB - Select Materials ETF.  Red bars bigger than green bars this past week.

YUM - Cramer complained about YUM's earnings.  Sure same-store sales are flat in the US, but the company is firing on all cylinders in China

CD Listing

Taxable

WASHINGTON MUT BK FA STOCKTON CA CD FDIC INSURED TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/02/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

DISCOVER BK GREENWOOD DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/16/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

Have a great week!

SXCI was the chart of the week. 

I picked up some on the breakout at $45 back on 9/18.  After an orderly pullback to the breakout point, the stock slowly worked its way higher.  On Thursday it closed quietly at a new all-time high of $49.21.  On Friday it broke decisively higher and took out the resistance at $50.  No earnings due until 11/6.  This stock could be at $60 by then.

YUM came out with earnings on Wednesday Oct 7th.   David C. Novak, Chairman and CEO, said, “I’m pleased to report we are raising our full year 2009 EPS growth forecast to 12% based on our strong year-to-date profit performance. Our global portfolio delivered an impressive 15% operating profit growth this quarter, driven by 32% growth in China and 18% growth in our U.S. business.  

Translation - the company is kicking butt in China and emerging markets to make up for a mature and slowing market in the US.  I like and i'm sticking with it on the long side.

Now back to the alphabetical positions review....

AAPL - This chart is a thing of beauty and is coming up against resistance at $190 and the all time high at about $200.   I suspect the stock will be above $200 by the time earnings are due on 10/21.  Its going to be quite a ride in the next 2 weeks so strap on your seatbelt.

ABVT - Stock is holding above my recent entry at $48. No recent news or earnings on the horizon. 

AUY - Already covered in my Weekly Update, will add AUY or GLD on a pullback to support.

C - Earnings due this coming Thursday.  Loan loss reserves are going to be the story.  We are looking for underlying revenue growth to get C out of the morass.

On the negative side, Citi announced its going to sell its Phibro commodities trading unit.  This business made over $300 million for Citi last year, but they are being forced to sell it based on the political pressure of have to pay their stop trader $100 million a year.  This is clearly the negative of 30% government ownership.

EEM - Emerging Markets ETF is up 1.7% since my recent entry. Weakening dollar helps.

KO - Coke peaked for the week on Wednesday just above $55.  Earnings are due next Tuesday Oct 20th.  Company has good emerging markets exposure and something like 70% of revenues come from non US sources.  So the company will benefit from a weakening USD.

MYRX - Stock continues to cool off after recent excitement regarding is oral Aids formulation.

NEOG - Stock is pulling back after some recent good earnings and a contract with the Chinese government.  Looking to add-to in the 27.50 range.

PWRD - Price action has been disappointing recently.  I entered this position about the same time as SXCI, both on a double-down after good price action.  Still holding above the lower range band, so i'm sticking with it.

SPY - Looks like i'm going to get called away since I sold the 107 call for even in exchange for the 105 put. 

SXCI - Already covered above.

USO - Daily range bands moved to the upside this Friday at 37.11.

XLB - Up slightly on this position and should probably bail out.

YUM - Already covered above.

CD Listing

Taxable

WASHINGTON MUT BK FA STOCKTON CA CD FDIC INSURED TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/02/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

DISCOVER BK GREENWOOD DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/16/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

Have a great week!

Coca Cola (KO) is the chart of he week and seems to be bucking the recent market trend.  Its now a mere .30 from its recent high at 54.14 and up 4 out of 5 days this past week. 

Citi started Coke with an Outperform rating on Tuesday with a $61 price target.  With 75% of its earnings coming from overseas, KO stands to profit from a weakening dollar.

Now back to the regular alphabtical positions coverage.

AAPL - Earnings are due 10/21. The stock made a nice counter-trend move non Friday bouncing right off the top of the upper range band.  Stock got an upgrade from UBS on Friday.  Price action is still positive but is facing an unhill battle with the overall market for tech stocks softening.  I'm expecting one day soon we are going to wake up and AAPL will gap up to $220 in a single tick.   Then I will wake up - ba ha ha.

ABVT - Stock slipped below by entry point at $48, but remains above the lower range band.  IBD indicates "Finding support above the 10-week line following pullback.  Volume has been pretty low this past week but i'm sticking with it.  No options available for this stock.

C - Stock has been hugging the lower range band, but holding up fairly well.  Earning due out next Thursday October 15th.  Most news this week ordinary capital markets news except on Tuesday Citi annonced it would sell its credit card business in Portugal to Barclays.

EEM - Had a nice high-volume day on Wednesday due to some end-of-quarter buying.  I'm down about 1.30 on this with so may consider some type of option-based hedge.

KO - Already covered above.

MYRX - Cooling off again after recent excitement regarding positive findings on their oral anti-AIDS formulation.

NEOG - Stock is cooling off after a recent earnings-related run.  Looking to double-down somewhere south of $30.

PWRD - Perfect World is hanging in there and showing some signs of distribution.  IBD indicates "Analysts see Chinese Gamers earnings jumping 55% this year.  With my cost at $46 i'm trying to hang in there and stick with it.   I may sell a 45 call for 2.20 against half of my position this coming week with the expectation of some sideways action since earnings are not out until 11/10.

SPY - I'm now underwater about 2.30 on this position, but offset by my 107 - 105 collar I entered last week for even.

SXCI - Stock got a few upgrades this past week with targets now moved to $49 and $51.  This stock is #3 on the IBD 100 with a composite rating of 99.  IBD indicates "pauses, dips in lower volume after solid advance.  Fundamental summary indicates "Drug benefits manager's EPS estimated to rise 60% this year, 25% in 2010.

USO - Went negative on the daily range bands with past week.  This is my long-term play on inflation and energy prices.   My cost at 36.50 so i'm currently in the hole about 0.75.    I might consider selling the October 37 call at 65 cents, but the comission will cost me $10.  If I had Interactive brokers, I would consider doing it because the comission would cost me $1!

XLB - With cost at 31.15 i'm currently in the hole about a 1.50 on this position, but trying to stick with it.

YUM - The restaurat group took a hit this week with a sell-off in Darden restaurants (DRI).  But as I type this i'm about to run off to

SWGJG/SWGVA - This this SPY Oct 107 short call, Oct 105 long put entered last week for even.  I'm up about 2.80 on this position which is offset by my 2.40 open loss on my SPY long position.  Sticking with it for now and will likely ride this one until just before expiration.

CD Listing - Sorted by expiration

Taxable

WASHINGTON MUT BK FA STOCKTON CA CD FDIC INSURED TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/02/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

DISCOVER BK GREENWOOD DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/16/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

That's all for now, have a great week!

Neogen (NEOG) was my run-away winner on the week moving out to a new all-time high on good volume.  Earnings came out and were up 18% and revenues were up 12% from the same period last year. 

This stocks is pretty thinly traded and often gives opportunites to add-to on a pullback which I may do on a pullback below $30.

Now back to regular alphabetical positions review....

AAPL - Long 1 lot in each account with average cost of 186.30.  Looking to slip out of this position at a small profit as I expect this to pull back and give us a lower entry later.  Earnings due 10/21 and may be buoyed by the proposed FASB rule change regarding accounding rule change.  Stock is a member of the IBD 100 with a Composite Rating of 98.

ABVT - New entry from last week, stock still in IBD 100.  IBD indicates stock has had 5 straight quarters of triple-digit EPS growth.  Volume Bars show accumulation on this past week's action.

C - Stock has been hugging the lower range-band lately. Sticking with it for the longer term.  Cost is at $3.82 so i'm currently in the money.

EEM - Stock is resting on the top of the upper range-band.  Down about a point on this position.  Getting nervous if on this position as it is vulnerability of the general market takes a dive.

KO - Coke had a nice orderly 5-day pullback on low volume, then found support at 52.25.  Costs is at 52 so i'm up about a buck.  Sticking with it.

MYRX - Action has cooled a bit this past week since postive Phase 2 results of its Beviramat experimenal HIV drug.  Zero cost from MYGN spinoff.

NEOG - Already covered above.

PWRD - Stock sold off hard after making a new all-time high just over $50.  Stock ended at $44 and i'm now down $3 on the 2nd half of the position and down slightly on the first half.  Trying to hang in there this coming week and hopefully some postive upside momentum can resume.

QCOM - Stock is now negative on the daily range bands. An article on 24/7 Wall Street indicates the company has 15 billion in cash and securities on the books.  Up nicely on this position with cost at about 39.60.

SPY - Index is showing some signs of distribution.  With my cost at 104.72, i'm down slightly.  If this position slips about 105, i'm going to sneak out at a small profit.

USO - Getting pelted on this position. I'm starting to think that energy companies might be a better way to play energy than USO.  This is because energy companies pay dividends and USO has additional overhead to to rollover costs in the futures.

XLB - Select Sector Materials ETF.  With cost at $31.50,  i'm down slightly on the position

YUM - Stock broke recent support and is now on the way down. 

CD Listing - Now sorted by expiration

Taxable

WASHINGTON MUT BK FA STOCKTON CA CD FDIC INSURED TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/02/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

DISCOVER BK GREENWOOD DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/16/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

AAPL as well as the entire market looks pretty extended here. I'm going to try and stick with it on the long side.

C - Stock has stopped resting on the upper daily range band and is now perched on the lower range band ready to break through it to the downside.  4.26 is the lower range band but i'm in this one for the long term.

EEM - Stock is right below where I bought it and looks like I top-ticked this one and I'm going into the red. 

KO - Has been a real winner since entry early last week.  I'm going to try and stick with it.

MYRX - Has been rocking lately and is now a breakout buy crossing the old high of 7.5.  They had some positive pre-clinical data on their HIV drug.

NEOG - As expected stock dropped back below 30 giving us an opportunity for re-entry.

PWRD - New entry from last week at 30.  Stock goes to sleep for days at a time then wakes up to become a winner again.  Just need to stick with it through the sleep period and not get shaken out like I did last time.

QCOM - Went negative on the daily range bands for the first time since last December! Also, red bars have been swamping green bars on both the daily and weekly charts.   I love this company long term and may either buy puts or sell a call.

RIMM - Is also looking pretty toppy here and its utterly failed to get over resistance at $85.  Earnings due out this Thursday though.  IBD reminds us that RIMM is expected to report the 6th quarter of slowing EPS growth.  I'm going to try and slip out of this with a small profit. 

SPY - The market is well extended to the upside, which begs the question - what's the proper stop loss on this position?  How about 105.10 so I can get out at scratch plus commissions?

SXCI - Rocking to the upside, close below the low of the entry bar at 43.70. 

USO - Forming a wedge pattern and it moves sideways.  Not expecting anything sudden here, could be a good opportunity to sell calls at 38, cost at 36.50.

XLB - Commodities play, don't panic out, it a long term hold.  How about sell call on half and buy protective put?

YUM - Weekly still pointing up, daily ralling back.  No signficant news this past week.

CD Listing - Now sorted by expiration

Taxable

WASHINGTON MUT BK FA STOCKTON CA CD FDIC INSURED TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/02/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

DISCOVER BK GREENWOOD DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/16/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

Going to start looking at Interative Brokers.  I thought I read that you get stock trades for $1 and if you don't make $10 in trades a month, they charge you $10.  That 90% less than i'm paying now!

C - Citi again seems to have found support right at the upper range band.  Even though we had 3/5 down days this past week, up volume still appears to outpacing down volume based on the daily chart.  Next earnings due out Oct 15th.

CMGIA/CMGIT - This is the CMG_+1.56% Sept 100/105 call spread entered for a debit of 1.5.  This position will likely go out worthless.

MYRX - Is showing some signs of life.  News on Thursday indicated they are going to be presenting their work an oral treatment of human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) infection.   They are in the pre-clinical phase here and this company seems to be setup as a research and development shop with the commercialization going on elsewhere.  Stock had a nice pop on Friday on the biggest volume since July.

NEOG - As expected, we got little follow-through from last weeks upside breakout.  Stock is once again under 30 and marking time.  Earnings due next Monday Sept 21 before the open.

QCOM - Stock had 4 straight up-days this past week shaking off recent distribution. I'm sticking with it even though the daily range bands went negative last week.

SPY - Now long one lot in each account from about 104.70.  I entered on a breakout to a new high, and i'm probably going to end up regretting this entry.  But when the shorts repeatedly fail, what's left to do but go long?

XLB - Also long one lot of select SPDR Basic Materials ETF.  Stock recently took out resistance at $30 and looks to be moving higher on the weakening dollar and increasing demand from China.  I saw Elaine Garzarelli on Nightly Business Report last Friday who made this call.

USO - Oil had a wild week, first gapping up to almost $72 on the OPEC meeting, then giving it back on Friday.  Really more of a play on the weakening dollar.

UPS - Long term hold since I worked there back in the late 1980's and early 1990's.

YUM - Posted 3 of 5 loosing days this week on increasing volume.  Definitely some signs of distribution going on but I love the prospects for this casual dining chain.  KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut and Long John Silvers.  Plus, its the fastest growing retail chain on the planet and there's a lot of hungry people in China.

I need to start looking at corporate bonds in addition to just CD's.

CD Listing - Now sorted by expiration

Taxable

WASHINGTON MUT BK FA STOCKTON CA CD FDIC INSURED TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/02/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

DISCOVER BK GREENWOOD DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/16/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

ABVT - Holding onto recent gains and is marking time for the 2x1 split which is due Monday AM.  I woke up Saturday to see last trade a $0 and a big hole in my account.  I'm sure they will resolve this Monday and credit me for the new shares.  Up almost $10 since my recent entry at $85.

C - Already covered in my weekly update.  Stock has been volume leader on the NYSE almost every day this week.  There was also a comment circulating on Twitter that this stock has 5.5B shares outstanding an 86K shares outstanding short interest.  Less than 1% short interests is pretty low indicating the shorts are almost totally out of this stock.  Cost at $3.97 so i'm up nicely.

LFT - Earnings came out this week and disappointed. The stocks sold off hard but found support at about 24.50.  Stock clearly blew through my supposed stop at 29 on a large gap on Monday.  The sell-off also brought in supporter Goldman Sachs who raised their target price to $34.

MYRX - No news this past week for the spin-off from Myriad Genetics.

NEOG - Earnings came out Friday and stock bounced nicely off the low at $27.  Need to listen to the call.

QCOM - Bounced off the lower rance band as shown in the chart above.  It was a good week for telecomm stocks and QCOM is clearly a part of Jim Cramer's mobile internet cohort.

SXCI - Stock has been up, up and away since the huge gap-up back on 8/6/2009.  Stock might be in what IBD calls a 'Climax Run' where it doubles withing a 6-week period.  If that's the case, we could see $60 within about 4 weeks.  Also been watching IBD 100 name Catalyst Hearth (CHSI) which is also provides Pharmacy Benefit Management (PBM) services.  One half of my position got called away at $30 and i'm looking to reload this coming week.

USO - Oil had a nice run this week as Oil futures hit a new high for the year.  The start of the North American Hurricane season has observers on edge also since the geo-political risk seems muted.

YUM - Bounced off the bottom of the range bands this week in a very similar fashion to QCOM.  UBS cut YUM from "buy" to "neutral" back on 8/11/2009.  I'm sticking with it.

CMGIA/CMGIT - This is the Sept 100/105 call spread entered for $1.5.  Stock found some support at $85 and is once again asserting some upward bias.  Sticking with it but its going to take a pretty signficant move to get this position back into the money.

CD Listing - Now sorted by expiration

Taxable

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL 5.10% 09/08/2009

WASHINGTON MUT BK FA STOCKTON CA CD FDIC INSURED TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/02/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

1ST COMM BK NORTH LAS VEGAS  5.15%  08/28/2009

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

Leading off with the Options Express account again.  This past Monday I closed out my RIMM August 70-75 call spread for a profit of $92.   For an investment of $218, this was a pretty good percentage profit. My other 2 positions are going into the red however.

CMGIA/CMGIT - This is the CMG Sept 100/105 call spread entered for a debit of 1.5.  This position has a max profit of $350 and a max loss of $150.  Stock sold off hard and closed at 87.95, close to the 50-day Moving Average.  

At this point the position looks like a loser, so I'm just going to let it ride.  I could close out the (profitable) short 105 call, but that's only going to increase my max loss from $150 to $175.  Of course, it would leave me long the 100 call, but that looks like it will go out worthless.  Of course, September is a long way off and a lot could happen.

CQNHM/CQNHN - CERN August 65-70 call spread I put on 3 weeks back for a debit of $180 with max profit of $320.  The August short 70 call is at 10 cents, so i'm likely to close out the short call and go naked long the 65 call with only 5 days left, its a roll of the dice, but I can do so by adding only $10 to the max loss on the trade. 

Now back to E*Trade.

ABVT - Stocks is pretty well extended to the upside.  2 for 1 split due this Thursday and I expect to cool off after the split.

C - has been getting a lot of press lately and is apparently in play by a number of hedge funds to the upside.  Word is that Hedge Fund manager Eddie Lambert is long 19 million shares.  I just got the shareholder info and a reverse split is in the cards.

LFT - This IBD-100 name has earnings due on Tuesday.  IBD indicates "Breakout stalls after 1st day - but remains above the 29.38 buy point."  Sticking with it an holding on tight through earnings.  Stop loss not far below, however.

MYRX - Zero cost leftover from MYGN debacle. Not much doing this week.

NEOG - Stock action is looking sloppy With cost at $15.50 in my retirement account, and $22 in my taxable account, I may take profits this coming week.

QCOM - Marking time right here at the 50-day moving average.  Part of Cramer's Wireless Internet build-out cohort, so i'm sticking with it.  With strikes at every $, I may sell and out of the money August call if we get a strong day this week.  We ususally get one strong upside day the week of option expiration, so I will be looking to sell calls on that rally.

SXCI - Stock moved from 38 to 41 this week which was a bit of a pleasant surprise after last week's 30% gap upward.  Sticking with my long

USO - Stock sold off hard on Friday and appears be topping here.  Looking to add a longside hedge if we get a high-volume rally day this coming week.

YUM - Had a high-volume distribution day on Tuesday when it got downgraded by UBS.  Will also look to sell an out of the money call on half of position on any type of rally this week.

XZQHF/XZQTF - This is the zero cost collar I put on on half my position for even money.  The good news is I get to sell half my position in SXCI at a small profit.  The bad news is that if I had done nothing,  I would be up an extra $1000 per account.  So i'm going to just let them have half my position in SXCI for a small profit and move on.

CD Listing - Now sorted by expiration

Taxable

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL 5.10% 09/08/2009

WASHINGTON MUT BK FA STOCKTON CA CD FDIC INSURED TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/02/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

1ST COMM BK NORTH LAS VEGAS  5.15%  08/28/2009

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

USO went postive on the daily range bands last Friday 7/31 at 36.80.  The weekly bands have been postive since early June, albeit at a higher price - about 39.10.  So at this point, both the daily and weeklys are pointing up once again. 

In terms of trend reversals, the daily goes negative at 33.90 and the weekly goes negative at 26.70.  So bias is to the upside, but tempered slightly by the counter-seasonal trend for Oil to decline between now and Feb, 2010.

So sticking with my long for now and looking to add a bullish position.

Leading once again with Options Express account where I added a call spread in CMG this past week.

CMGIA/CMGIT - This is the September 100/105 call spread entered for a debit of 1.5.  This position has a max profit of $350 and a max loss of $150.  Stock had a small pullback but seems to have found support in the 92 area.  IBD still likes it and its one of the few stocks in the IBD 100 with a black square around it indicating its still in a buying area.

CQNHM/CQNHN - CERN August 65-70 call spread I put on 3 weeks back for a debit of $180 with max profit of $320.  The position is looking more likely to go out at a loss.

RFYHN/RFYHT - This is the RIMM August 70-75 call spread that I put on for a debit of $218 with a max profit of $282.  Gave back some profits on this position, but (as i've found) I don't make the maximum profit until expiration, so I have to squeeze all I can out of this position to offset my loosing option trades.  If its starts to threaten the 75 strike, i'll think twice about that and take what profits are there. 

Back to E-Trade.

ABVT - Pickup up half a position this past week and its showing a small profit.  Company has a 2x1 split with record date of August 20th.  Also earnings are due out Monday.  Yikes - didn't realzie that when I bought it - need to be more careful.

C - Stock had its biggest volume day ever in its history on Thursday when over 2 billion shares  changed hands.  That's almost 20% of the 11.2 Billion share float.  That suggest some serious accumulation going on.  Sticking with it.

MFE - Stock  is taking a breather here, and threatening my small profit.  I'm going to put a mental stop at $42.50 to protect my small profit.  Options premiums seem pretty low here for example the Sept 45 call is only paying $1 so it hardly seems worth writing that position going in the fall.

MYRX - Not much going on here in this MYGN spin-off.  Volume has been drying up in the absence of any kind of news.

NEOG - Stock had a nice bounce-back after shaking me out at $27 which was the bottom of the move.  No news this week.

QCOM - is cooling off along with the rest of the Nasdaq.  Stock has been down  9 of the last 12 days since the high-volume selloff back on 7/23.  Cost basis under 40 so i'm up nicely.  August 46 collar selling for even money, but 46 is the bottom of the channel so i'm looking for support here.

SXCI - Already covered in my weekly update.  I'm up over 100% on this position since entry back on 1/2/2009.

USO - Stock is now above the declining 200-day MA and above the rising 50-day MA.  Also, daily and weekly range bands went postive last week.  Sticking with it despite a seasonal bias for a decline this time of year through Feb 2010.  USO deserves its own post.

YUM - is right at the top of the channel at 36.5 after I picked up another lot in my reitrement account at the bottom of the channel at 34.  August 36 collar can be entered for a credit of 55 cents but i'm likely to just let it ride.

XZQHF/XZQTF - This is the SXCI August 30 collar put on for even money.  I'm down horribly on this position, so i'll let them just have the 100 shares of SXCI and this position will go away.  In exchange my large unrealized gain on half my SXCI will go away and become a small realized gain.

CD Listing

Taxable

FEDERAL TR BK FSB SANFORD FLA  5.40% 08/11/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL 5.10% 09/08/2009

WASHINGTON MUT BK FA STOCKTON CA CD FDIC INSURED TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/02/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

1ST COMM BK NORTH LAS VEGAS  5.15%  08/28/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Leading again this week with the Options Express account.  OX is growing on me since they cut my comissions and I haven't funded the Think or Swim account yet.

CQNHM/CQNHN - This is the CERN August 65-70 call spread I put on 2 weeks back for a debit of $180 with max profit of $320.  Checking the chart on the left, up volume continues to outpace down volume, so i'm sticking with it.

RFYHN/RFYHT - This is the RIMM August 70-75 call spread that I put on for a debit of $218 with a max profit of $282.  All we need is a close above $75 on August expiry and I make the maximum profit on this position

Now back to E*Trade....

C - Citi shows some signs of life this week as they completed their preferred to common conversion.  Also some big index buying came in on Friday according to CNBC.  Sticking with it.

DIA - Long 1 lot in my retirement account.  The broad indices are clearly under-represented in my account.

MFE - Already covered in my weekly update.  Watching for signs of distribution and possible add-to on a pullback.  Stock dropped out of the IBD 100 this week which is a warning sign.

MYRX - Up slightly this week.  This is a zero-cost basis leftover from the MYGN debacle.

NEOG - Added another lot this week when the stock broke above 30 after weeks of consolidation.  Stock fell back, so it may have been a false breakout.

QCOM - Some low-volume distribution going on according to the chart on the left. With options at every strike, I can now sell the 46 collar (and below) for a credit. Options activity was dominated by the 44 puts which traded over 4000 contracts on Friday.  There's an option trade here somewhere, more to come.

SXCI - Stock recovered from a pullback to 28 to close around 29.50. No news this week, earnings before market hours this coming Thursday.

USO - broke the 28-bar range bands to the upside on Friday so i'm sticking with my long.

YUM - Addition of lot in my retirement account 2 weeks back at 44 was a good move as the stock closed Friday at 35.46.   Stock is petering out here, so it may be time to see some calls or perhaps a call spread.

My CD "WASHINGTON MUT BK HENDERSON NEV C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS DUE 07/31/2009 5.150" came due on Saturday, so i'm looking to reload next week on something that pays 5%.

CD Listing

Taxable

FEDERAL TR BK FSB SANFORD FLA  5.40% 08/11/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL 5.10% 09/08/2009

WASHINGTON MUT BK FA STOCKTON CA CD FDIC INSURED TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/02/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

1ST COMM BK NORTH LAS VEGAS  5.15%  08/28/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

USO is a tradable that seems to respond well to my favorite indicator - Range Bands.  I did some rough optimization and found that USO gives much better results when using the 28-bar range bands versus my default of 12-bar.

Its hard to see on the chart on the left, but for buy-and hold, USO is worth only $49 for an initial investment of $100 since its inception.   When trading using 28-bar range bands USO is worth $155.00  And that's for long-only positions.  I had some trouble with Backscanner getting it to simulate short positions or the difference would have been much more dramatic.

Note that for most of the history of the chart, buy-and-hold had comparable returns versus the range bands.  On the sell-off from $150 down to $30 Oil, the range bands pulled way ahead because the were flat for that sell-off.

Note that for range bands went short on USO at 34.71 back on 7/6/2009, so I need to reconsider my long position in USO and start to position for the downside.  This is consistent with the seasonal high for Oil and this time of year (late July) followed by a seasonal low in Febuary 2010.

For the formula for range bands, check out my Blog Archive for January 2009.

I'm doing my Options Express account positions first this week since i'm firing on all cylinders in that account.

CQNHM/CQNHN - This is the CERN August 65-70 call spread I put on last week for a debit of $180 with max profit of $320.  CERN had a good move this week and up volume has been swamping down volume as shown in the chart on the left.  Earnings due out this Wednesday 11/29 after the close.

RFYHN/RFYHT - This is the RIMM August 70-75 call spread that I put on for a debit of $218 with a max profit of $282.  This position has been working out well, but as I found out last week, I don't get to make the max profit (even though the stock is above 75) until much closer to expiration due to the extra premium present in 75 short call.

Now back to E*Trade....

C - This stock is a looser, but for some reason, I feel compelled to hold onto it.

DIA - Long 1 lot in my retirement account.  The broad indices are clearly under-represented in my account.

MFE - This is a recent winner picked up from my weekly scan of the IBD 100.   I'm up about 2 points on this since entry and earnings are due out during market hours this Thursday.   I may put on the 45 collar (long 45-put, short 45 call) if I can do so for a credit heading into earnings.

MYRX - Stock had a pretty-decent week up 7%.  This is a zero-cost basis leftover from the MYGN debacle.

NEOG - Earnings came out this past week, revenues rose 14% versus the same quarter last year.  Gross margins almost 50%.  CEO says.. "We continue to see a world of opportunity ahead for us, and we will continue to execute the growth strategies necessary to seize the opportunities." Sticking with it.

QCOM - This stock got a double-whammy of bad news this week.  First earnings came out  below expectations and second, South Korea hit QCOM with a 200 million plus fine for anti-competitive practices.   With all that, the stock only sold off 2% from its recovery high.   But you can't keep a good stock down, and QCOM is a long-term winner.

SXCI - Stock made a new recovery high this week.  IBD says "10% extended past 26.99 buy pt from pullback to 10-wk."  No news this week, earnings due 8/7/2009.

USO - broke the 200-day moving average to the upside this past week as shown on the left.  Seasonal tendencies are for it to peak in the next week or so, so i'm staying long and looking for a topping pattern to hedge my long.

YUM - Picked up another lot in my retirement account this week as YUM appears to be bumping along the bottom of a channel.

CD Listing

Taxable

FEDERAL TR BK FSB SANFORD FLA  5.40% 08/11/2009

FIRST MERCHANTS BK N A MUNCIE IND  5.30% 7/20/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL 5.10% 09/08/2009

WASHINGTON MUT BK FA STOCKTON CA CD FDIC INSURED TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/02/2009

WASHINGTON MT BK HENDERSON NEV 5.15% 07/31/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

1ST COMM BK NORTH LAS VEGAS  5.15%  08/28/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

USO/UBOGL - USO found a bottom at about 32 this past week and started to work its way higher.   UBOGL (July 28 call) went out worthless which netted $120 per account.  Seasonal trend is for oil to head lower as of end of July and make a low in Feb 2010.   For now will be content to stay long as an inflation hedge and sell calls on a rally to collect premium.

QAQGO/QAQSL - These are the Apollo 65 put 75 call combo that I bought as part of an Iron Condor in APOL which went out worthless on Friday.  I already netted $420 by closing out the short legs of this trade.  I lost $250 on these 2 legs, so I netted $170 total.  Could have made $300 had I let this trade run to completion.

YUM - Earnings came out and did not dissapoint.  Did nothing on the options side.  Noticed however that at one point on Tuesday, I could have sold the July 36 call and bought the July 36 put for zero cost.  Had I put on this trade, I could have netted $240 per contract and still kept my stock.  Something to keep in mind for future earnings releases when stock rallies into the earnings announcement.

SXCI - IBD says "Up 6% from 26.99 buy point from pullback to 10-week line."  Earnings due out August 7 and IBD indicates "Analyst expect 4% drop in EPS after strong accelerating trend."  Need to be vigilant for a potential top coming up into earnings.  Volume on up days has been crushing volume on down days lately, so we are good for the time being.   Added some this past week at 28.20.

RFYHN/RFYHT - RIMM August 75-70 call spread entered for a debit of $2.18.   If RIMM has a close above 75 this week, the position should reach max profitability.  Unclear on whether this will occur whenever RIMM closes above 75 or only on expiration.  Will learn from this position.

QCOM - Earnings due out this Wednesday after the close and stock has rallied nicely at a new high since the 2008 top.  At this point, the 46 or 47 collar can be entered for a credit.  Unlikely to do anything this week since i'll be away on vacation.

NEOG - Stock seems to have found some resistance at 30 here.   Earning due before the open on Tuesday.  No options are available here and i'm unlikely to do anything going into earnings.

MYRX - Zero-cost mustard seed left over from Myriad Genetics debacle.

MFE - Stock is at a new 10-year high and looking like a winner.  For the second week running, IBD has a black-square around this chart indicating its still in a good buying position.  Long 1 lot in each account and sticking with it.  Earnings due out on July 30 during market hours.

One distribution day in MFE on Thursday on higher volume.

HMSY - Up nicely on this position.  Earnings due out on July 31 before market open.

C - Earnings came out this week.  Citi is still a sick pup and managed to show a profit only because of a large one-time gain by the Smith Barney / Morgan Stanley joint venture.  It had a good rally off the lows and considering it was $2.60 last week, it had a decent rally off the low.

CQNHM/CQNHN - This is the Cerner August 65-70 call spread.   I paid $160 for this and it doesn't look too promising.

CD Listing

Taxable

FEDERAL TR BK FSB SANFORD FLA  5.40% 08/11/2009

FIRST MERCHANTS BK N A MUNCIE IND  5.30% 7/20/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL 5.10% 09/08/2009

WASHINGTON MUT BK FA STOCKTON CA CD FDIC INSURED TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/02/2009

WASHINGTON MT BK HENDERSON NEV 5.15% 07/31/2009

Retirement

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

1ST COMM BK NORTH LAS VEGAS  5.15%  08/28/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

Have a great week.

Doing positions in reverse order this week.

USO/UBOGL - Check out the way the 12-bar range bands trading system have completely crushed buy-and-hold when trading USO.  I took the sell signal back on 6/22 to take off half of my USO position.  I protected the other half by selling a July 38 call for $1.20 which will go out worthless.  So at this point, i'm down about $400 on the USO, but will make some money on the short call.

I owe you all a post with a range bands manifesto.  I've been doing some work with Backscanner and have some interesting results to report.  More on that later today if I have time

QAQGO/QAQSL - These are the Apollo 65 put 75 call combo that I bought as part of an Iron Condor in APOL.  I already netted $420 by closing out the short legs of this trade, so now i'm content to hold these until this Friday's expiration.   With only 0.05 and 0.18 left its not worth the commisson to close these out anyway.

YUM - Earning are due out after the close on Tuesday.  With my cost in the low 29's, i'm up about $1000 on this position.  Now I can either a) Sell stock and take profit b) Sell 35 call against position c) Buy protective put, d) Collar the gains by selling call and buying put or e) Do nothing.

I took and look and here's what I came up with.  Sell the July 34 calls at 1.40 and buy the July 35 Put at 1.0.  This positions costs me a credit of 0.4 and i'm covered from 1x1 from 34 south.  If the stock rallies,  I sell at 34 and I can live with that.  If the stock sells off I can close the long puts for a profit, the short call expires worthless and I get to keep the stock.

SXCI - Stock made a new all-time closing high on Thursday.  Stock is extended way beyond 50 and 200 day moving averages and is vulnerabily to a decline.  But making a new high is an important technical event and cannot be ignored.  Besides, there are no options on this stock, so its either sell or stick with it.   Several analysts raised targets, one as high as 29.  This stock is an add-to on a decline.  IBD agrees:  "In possible buy range after visit to 10-week line.

QCOM - Stock has been flat to down 8 of the last 10 days and down volume is exceeding up volume.  Even so, its oversold short terms and may find support at the 50-day MA.

NEOG - Stock is taking a rest after  a recent run.  I've been with this company since 2007 and up about 30% on the position.

MYRX - A leftover from the MYGN debacle, mustard seed with zero cost basis.

MFE - IBD has a black square around this which means the they its in buying range. Their comment: "Cleared buy point at 40.99 then eaed under it.  Next few days will be telling.

HMSY - IBD says "Climbed 10% after clearing 38.8 buy point, dips in Soft Trade" 

C - This is a stinky loosing position down 27%, don't know why i'm sticking with this position and it needs to be cut.

In the interest of self-awareness, I decided to list out my CD's also:

Taxable

FEDERAL TR BK FSB SANFORD FLA  5.40% 08/11/2009

FIRST MERCHANTS BK N A MUNCIE IND  5.30% 7/20/2009

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL 5.10% 09/08/2009

WASHINGTON MT BK HENDERSON NEV 5.15% 07/31/2009

Retirement

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

1^ST COMM BK NORTH LAS VEGAS  5.15%  08/28/2009

WASHINGTON MU BK HENDERSON NEV 4.05% 07/17/2009

I need to do some serious CD shopping this week.  As I said in my weekly update, if you go out as far as 7/2010,  you can get yields up to 5.6%

AIG - has reduced its debt to the federal government from $173 billion to $127 billion.  The company got approval from the Fed to retire another 25 billion in exchange for ownership of more insurance subsidiaries.  Estimates in January put the entire value of AIG's holdings at $225 billion so when all is said and done there should be 100 billion worth of businesses here once the government is fully paid off.  Its going to take some time.  Shareholder meeting coming up Tuesday 6/30.

C - Nothing exciting happening here, just slowly rebuilding the business and cleaning house.

FAS - Showing some signs of life on Friday after recent weakness

HMSY - Stock quietly closed at a new all-time high on Friday on good volume.  IBD indicates 100 technical summary: "Up 7% from 38.10 handle in base-on-base pattern. "  This was is part of the Russell 3000 so the late day buying may be part of the annual rebalancing that took place on Friday's close.  Either way, it has all the makings of a winner, part of IBD 100, new all time high, great earnings, great fundamental story.  Okay enough already.

MYGN - This stocks is a roller-coaster and on Friday was down 2.90.  Since i'm long 500 shares that's almost a $1500 hit in each account.  Ouch!  Waiting for the Myriad Pharma spin-off which is due to be paid on 6/30.    Once that pays i'll consider taking some off the table.

MYRG - After a nasty sell-off back to below $19, my entire position went into the red.  Then we had a good rally along with Friday's incredible volume after the close (see Weekly Update).  I'm looking for a rally above $22 then i'm going to sell half my position.

NEOG - This stock has been on an incredible run and i'm expecting it to shortly take out its all-time high at $32. 

QCOM - Another great stock which is going to be an add-to under $45.

SH - Last weeks long entry is under pressure as we approach end of quarter window dressing.

SXCI - Another great stock with a great pattern. Price at all time high and it hitting on all cylinders!

USO/USOGL - Oil is looking toppy here and i'm long 100 shares at 36.5 and short the July 38 call at 1.2.  

YUM - IBD did a great article on this company in this week's Monday edition.  Thinking about buying some stock and selling calls, but the $35 call is trading at 40 cents so its hardly worth it.

Overall 30% stocks, 70% cash and equivalents.  Stocks position up slightly since last week due to an entry in SH and and exit in USO.

Some very interesting activity in MYRG after the close on Friday.   This stock has trade at most 500K shares per day.  It was on pace Friday for an active day then after the close a single block of 1.1MM shares crossed the tape on a huge apparent "Market on Close" order.  Then after that, another 2.55 MM shares or so crossed the tape, split pretty evenly between the bid and the offer.  Someone is doing some massive accumulation or distribution in this stock.  IBD shows 16.2 Million shares outstanding so about 3% of the float of this company traded after hours on no news.   I read in IBD that there was some Russell funds rebalancing.  I checked and could not find MYRG in any of the Russell 1000, 2000 or 3000.

USO crossed the lower range band to the downside on Monday.  I took this an opportunity to take profits on the shares I bought back in early March in the low 29's.  That turned out to be low point for the week as USO ground higher from there.   I took the mid-week rally as a chance to sell some July 38 calls at 1.2 on the other half of my position.   I'm expecting a seasonal high at at the end of July and having paid 36.5 a sale at 38 plus 1.2 points premium would be a decent outcome. 

I'm feeling some pressure to take some profits as I am underperforming the S&P 500 in both accounts.  As of Friday, S&P 500 is up 1.73% for the year.  My retirement account is down 2.5% for the year and my taxable account is down almost 5% for the year.  I have a fair amount  of CD income in the pipeline which will help somewhat.

Here's my strategy for the rest of the year:

- Increase stocks position to closer to 50% as my CD's come due

- Scrub the IBD 100 each week and buy winning stocks with good chart patterns.  This method has yielded some good winners such as HMSY, SXCI, MYGN and MYRG.

- Add to winners when they are working (think NEOG)

- Take larger and more concentrated positions on stocks displaying good price action.

Enjoy your weekend.

AIG - I received the notice for the upcoming shareholder meeting and they are planning a 1 for 20 reverse split, so my 2000 shares will become 100 and will price the stock at about $30.  I'm not sure this is a good thing because the stock will just have farther to drop!   Reuters research has this stock at "Outperform" based on valuation and I agree.  Much as we all love to hate this company, there are many profitable businesses buried inside.

C - Dick Bove from Rochdale securities issued a "buy" with a price target of $12.  That will be a hefty profit for me at some point in the future, now all I have to do is wait for it.  As I pointed out back when I bought it, the government is taking all the downside and giving the upside to the shareholders.

FAS - Stock peeked above its rising 50-day moving average on Friday and is recovering from a recent sell-off.  With entry in the low 11's i'm down on this position.

HMSY - was my big winner for the week and I already covered it in my weekly update.  Stock had a convicing breakout on Tuesday, then had 2 inside days on lower (but still positive volume).  Then it had another rollicking breakout on Friday and moved into new all-time high territory.  New all-time high is one of my favorite self-fullfilling technical indicators because it tends to bring in the momentum players.  This week's IBD still flags it as a buy because its only 4% extended from the buy point at 38.38.  Stock has a history of pulling back after big moves, so while volume has been monster, a rest is clearly in order.

MYGN - Stock had a nasty 2 day sell-off earlier in the week on low volume, but nearly made it all back by the end of the week.  Waiting for spin-off of Myraid Pharmaceuticals which will trade under ticket MYGX and is expected on 6/30/2009.

MYRG - Already covered in my weekly update.  Looking to unload half my position above $22 and reload at under $21.

NEOG - Checkout the move this small-cap maker of food and animal safety product had on Friday.  The stock broke out to a new high for the year on Friday on the largest volume seen since January.  The only news I could find was 2 brokerages who cut the shares to "Neutral" from "Buy" this past week.  The recent deal with the Chinese government is still being factored into the shares.

QCOM - Stock rebounded nicely on higher volume after a nasty sell-off on Monday and Tuesday.  Looking to add more shares on weakness as this stock in a winner and likely headed higher.  QCOM is a great way to play the "smartphone" wireless Internet story which is a great macro theme trumpeted by Jim Cramer of CNBC's Mad Money.

SXCI - No news this week.  IBD-100 technical blurb: "Extended 14% from 22.60 buy point in short pattern".  Fundamental blurb: "Earnings growth ranged from 41% to 138% the past 4 quarters."

USO - appears to be rolling over here. Seasonal high is expected at the end of July, so i'm expecting one more push higher before the high of the year.  Time to start thinking about taking profits though. 

YUM - No news this week except a bear fund has shorted it.  Sticking with it.  

Cut your losers and let your profits run, that's my mantra.

AIG - Holding up fairly well since the daily range bands went negative back on 5/22/2009.  Sticking with it since its basically a call option with no expiration.   Overall i'm up in the taxable account and down slightly in the retirement account.

C - Not much is happening in this position since C got kicked out of the DJ-30.  Down about 40 cents per share on this.

FAS - Holding up fairly well - down slightly on this position in each account.

MYGN had an excellent week.  After the earnings sell-off, I was down almost $2000 in each account on this position, now up slightly.  Additional entries at $34.50 and $35.75 got me up to 500 shares in each account.  TSV has been leading price to the upside as TSV has made a new recovery high ahead of price.  Note the spin-off of Myriad Pharmaceuticals is expected by the end of June with 1 share of the spin-off for every 4 shares of MYGN.  So to keep things even, I should take profit on 100 shares of MYGN.

HMSY - Up nicely on this recent entry with cost just below $35.    Will add-to on a dip below $35, no news this past week.

MYRG had an interesting week.  After being up $500 in each account in just one week's time nearly all of my profit went away with Tuesday's sell-off.  But the stock came roaring back Wednesday and make another new all-time high before backing off on Thursday and Friday.  The only fly in the ointment now is volume which has been declining.  Also, volume on Friday's sell-off is the largest day of down volume in weeks.  No news this last week, so i'm considering this just profit-taking and sticking with it long term.  May take off half however if it gets back to $22.

NEOG - Another great looking chart, wish I had room for them all!  After last week's news about the deal with the Chinese government, its off and running.  Next stop $30.

QCOM - Cooling along with the rest of the Nasdaq 100 and volume on down days has been steadily increasing. Showing a nice profit here with entry just below 40.  The company increased its 3rd qurter guidance on Thursday and Friedman billings has a 12-month price target of $54.

RIMM - in a holding pattern ahead of earnings due out on Friday morning.   Long 100 shares in each account plus one June 80 call.  Up nicely on the stock, but slightly underwater on the calls.  Looking to take profit on the stock and either rollup to a high strike call or buy a protective put.  See the weekly update for more

SXCI - up nicely on this position with cost below $20.   No real news since May 20th, no options, no news to report, sticking with it.

TNA - up nicely on this broad-market play with entry at $27.82.

USO - up nicely on this position with entries at $29.20 and $32.85.  Sticking with it for now, letting profits run.

YUM found support right at the lower range band.  Like the rest of the market, volume has been declining recently.  Like I mentioned last week,  the Kentucky Grilled chicken seems to be well-received and hopefully will give a boost to this tired KFC franchise.  Up nicely on this position with cost just below $30. 

AAPL / RFYFP  - Long 100 in each account as well as 2 June 100 calls.  Stock continues to move up amid the developers conference coming up next week.  Also, got a high-profile analyst upgrade last week.  

Need to be careful with my APPL calls, because I got burned back in Feb when I let a good solid profit slip away due to simple lack of exit plan.   I'm going to put in a limit order to sell one of the 2 at 50 and let the other one ride.

AIG - Moving sideways, nothing much going on technically.  Slowly selling off assets to try and pay back the government.

C - CNBC is calling Citi a "Zombie Bank".  Its starting to look like a Zombie investment as well as the daily range bands are about to go negative and the price bumps up against the top tthe declining weekly range band.

FAS - Similar pattern to AIG and C, nothing much happening.  Perhaps financials have had their run.

HMSY - I'm up on this position after a recent entry at 34.90.  IBD 100 quick recap says "Still reaching for possible buy point in cup with high handle.  Sticking with it for now.

MYGN - Seems to have found some resistance at 38 after a nice run up from the low.  Getting ready to spin off 1 share of Myriad Pharmeceuticals for each share held.  Record date 6/17 pay date 6/30.

MYRG - This stock had quite a run and i'm up nicely on this IBD-100 pick.  On June 6th Deutsche securities started coverage with a buy rating and a price target of $27.

NEOG - Stock cleared recent resistance at 24 on news from 6/2 that NEOG is parterning with the Chinese government.   The Scotland-based office of NEOG will develop food and animal safety tests that will be replicate across 30 sites in China.  This is an awesome development for this small-cap animal and food safety play.

RIMM / RFYFP - Now long 100 shares in each account plus a June 80 call.  In the money nicely on the stock and coming into the money on the calls.

SXCI - This position is working out well and is firing on all cylinders and i'm up nicely.

TNA - Up nicely on this small position.

USO - Oil rally continues, expecting a seasonal high at the end July.

YUM - Based on my own family's experience, the Kentucky Grilled Chicken is a hit.  My wife would never allow the fried variety into the house due the sky-high carb content and its corresponding impact on my daughter's diabetes.   The grilled variety is essentially carb-free and the kids love it. 

AIG - Stock is above rising 50-day PMA, but below 200 day declining PMA.  No news this week.

C - Similar situation as AIG in terms of of the technicals. Recent resistance is at $4.5 and the stock seems to be stuck in the recent range.

FAS - Financials seem to be cooling recently as attention starts to focus on other areas of the market. FAS seems to have found support at its 50 day PMA and is slowly rising.   Bear in mind FAS was in the 25 range at the beginning of this year, so considerable upside remains.

HMSY - New position this week, HMS had a nice orderly pullback from a recent high.  Already covered in my Weekly Update entry.

MYGN - Added to this position this week, looking for higher prices ahead.

NEOG - Coverage initiated with a buy recommendation this past week at Sidoti.  Never heard of these guys.

QCOM - Stock has recovered nicely from a recent selloff where it found support right at the intersection of the 50 day PMA (red) and 200-day (cyan) PMA.

RIMM - Now long 200 shares and short 1 June 80 call.   This stock could easily sell off sharply so back to 75.  Watch the price action, it will be telling.

SXCI - This stock finally had the breakout i've been looking for an i'm up nicely.  As IBD put it this weekend: "At a two-year high after clearing short cup-with-handle base."   Sticking with it.

TNA - Bought this for some general market exposure at $27.60.  It quickly sold off but has since recovered.   This stock was at 35 at the start of this year so considerable upside remains.

USO - Almost back in the money on my orginal entry, and up nicely on my second entry at $29.20.  Expect further upside action through the end of July which is typically the seasonal high.

YUM - Sunday night is Taco Bell night at my house.  Go YUM. Go Taco Bell!   Enjoy your weekend.

AIG - Sitting right at the lower range band, almost unchanged from last Friday.  Forming the right side of a Head and Shoulders bottom. 

C - New FDIC special fees, new stock offerings, no shortage of headwinds for Citi.  But i'm sticking with it on the belief that the worst is behind them.

FAS - Underwater on this position as the rally in financials seems to be fading. Looks I was late to arrive to this party and i'm may well be late in leaving also.   An offsetting position in FAZ might be the remedy, but i've been burned on that side as well. 

MYGN - As I mentioned in my weekly update, I bought another 200 shares in each account this past Wednesday in anticipation of a break above the upper range band. Stock was punished recently after earnings were announced when it didn't meet expectations.  But the fundamentals are intact and this is a solid company.   Even recent legal action by the ACLU to sue the company to release its proprietary information on breast cancer genes couldn't bring any more sellers.

So in the absence of any real news, the stock is just drifting sideways.  Stock goes positive on a close above the upper range band at 34.31.  Note that the stock is currently negative on the break below the lower range band at 37.93 back on 4/22/2009. 

NEOG - A steady 10% earnings grower.  Sea-sawing downward from a recent all-time high at about 31.50.  Down almost 30% from the top.  

QCOM - Missed the chance to see May and June 45 calls.  Stock now drifting lower and the only thing that concerns me is that volume on down days has recently exceeded volume on up days.  One really interesting thing I have noticed however is that options for QCOM now trade at $1 strike increments.  So there's a June $40 call, June $41 call, you get the picture.  Many more  buy-write opportunties that way vs MYGN for example which still trades in $5 increments only.

SXCI - Fundamentals and technicals are now lining up and we are expecting higher prices ahead.  Daily range bands also went positive back on 5/7/2009.  Weekly review of IBD 100 indicated SXC got a multi-year, multi-million dollar contact with Prime Therepeutics.  Also indicates forming right side of base with a possible buy point at $23.53. 

TNA - Took a small position in TNA early this week at $27.80.  Top-ticked this positon and i'm down over $4 already.

USO - Finally came into the money on this position with entries at $36.50 and $29.20.  Sticking with it into the summer driving season.

YUM - Up nicely on this position and sticking with it.   Tried out the new Kentucky Grilled Chicken this week.  It was pretty good and not a bad zero-carb menu choice for those of us with diabetics in the family.

Enjoy the rest of your memorial day weekend.

AIG - Cooling off after some recent strength.  Daily bands go negative at 1.55.  I'm long 2000 shares and will consider selling calls on half if we can make our way back around the $2 area.  No real news this week other than an S&P downgrade. 

C - Citi sold some 2 billion in 10-year debt at 8.75% without a goverment guarantee this week and the sale was well received.  Its going to take a while for this company to become profitable but i'm sticking with it.

FAS - taking some lumps on this position having recently entered in the low 11's.  Daily range bands went negative on Wednesday of this last week.  If this stock just gets back to where it was on 1/2009, it would be at $25, so FAS is clearly lagging the general market strength.  Is going to take some patience, but I think the financials are have much more room to the upside than the downside here.  Some covered calls could ease the pain

MYGN - After last week's drubbing, the stock seems to have found a bottom and is moving sideways up.  Wednesday after the close a story came out about how the ACLU is suing Myriad over its patents on BRCA1 and BRCA2 hereditary breast cancer genes.  The stock was actually up slightly the next day indicating the sellers are done for now. Long term earnings are still growing in the 30%-40% range so i'm sticking with it.

NEOG - Daily range bands went negative Wednesday. Don't care and sticking with it.

QCOM - Daily range bands went negative, sticking with it.  No real news this week.

SXCI - Last weeks earning were good, sticking with it.  No news this week.

USO - Already covered in my other post.  Looking to take profits in late July.

YUM - Daily bands went negative, weekly bands still positive, sticking with it.

Take a look at a 12-month price chart of Gasoline versus Crude Oil courtesy of gasbuddy.com:

Crude bottomed out at $32 back in late December and is now up almost 75% from the bottom now at $56 a barrell.  Gasoline bottomed out at $1.60 at about the same time and has since move up only about 43% to a $2.30.  So it looks like crude prices exceed gasoline prices on both the way up and the way down. 

I've been playing the USO ETF which is up only about 39% off the bottom or roughly have of crude oil.  So it appears the USO has been significantly underperforming crude itself.

Using the magic of stockfinder, I did a comparison between USO and a bunch of other energy ETF's which is shown on the left.   Turns out that most energy ETF's underperformed USO except for DTO (double short oil ETF) and OIH, the Oil Service Holders.

The best performer versus USO was DTO, the double short ETF and the worst performer versus USO was the DXO, double long ETF!  How ironic is that? 

Key takeaways from this comparison:  OIH is a better way to play energy an energy bull market than USO.   Stay away from all the other energy ETF's and stick with OIH on the long side.  The dividend paying power of the underlying stocks is no doubt a contributor to the outperformance.

On the short side, DTO looks like a great way to play an energy bear market.  Seasonally. expect to see a top in energy prices at the end of July, and that would be the time to switch from OIH back to DTO.

Also better to fill up the gas tank (and Heating Oil if you need that) now because we are looking at higher prices for the next 2 months anyway.

Overall 81% cash and equivalents, 19% stocks.  Mr Market took a break from its recent run and started to resume some more normal behavior.  We had 4 down days this week and one up day, and the one up day (Thursday) didn't even take out the prior day's high. 

From the bigger picture perspective, daily and weekly range bands on the SPX are still both positive, but the daily bars are looking like they are going to go negative in a day or 2.  SPX goes negative on a close below 86.70. 

For the moving averages, SPY is above its rising 50-day MA, but below its declining 200-day MA.  Its almost like the 200 day MA was a ceiling that we couldn't make our way over.  So the long term picture is still negative which is just fine with me since i'm pretty heavily in cash.  

I also noticed some of my favorite stocks (YUM, QCOM) went negative on the daily range bands, so it might be time to resume one of my favorite down-to-sideways market tactics, selling covered calls against stock positions.

Energy has had quite a run this year which deserves its own post.

YUM - Retail is the #1 sector in Investors Business Daily this week and YUM has a 96 composite rating.  That mean's overall, its in the 96th percentile among all stocks in the list.  Plus, you can't beat the 99 cent crunchy beef tacos at Taco Bell. Weekly and daily range bands both positive, staying long and resisting the urge to sell the 35 calls.

USO - has had an great run lately and and the weekly range bands just went positive.  Note how the range bands caught the sell signal at 92 back on 8/8/2008!  Here's a case where the range bands absolutely crushed buy and hold.  Buy and hold at 50 cents on the dollar while range bands at $1.75 on the dollar!  I'm in the money on my entry at 29.20 and coming up on my earlier entry at 36.50.  Finally close to even on this position and expect oil to continue to rally into the summer driving season

SXCI - Will hold off until after I reveiw the earnings call.

QCOM - No news this week.  Both daily and weekly range bands are now positive.  Nasdaq has outperformed the broader market for the year and is now taking a break.

NEOG - Daily range bands are now positive and weekly bands are about to go positive. The swine flu outbreak has died down incredibly fast, so the money is coming out of related plays.

MYGN - Stock has taken a beating and daily and weekly range bands have both turned negative. Stocks is now about 30% down from the high at 45 and went from a nice gain to a nasy loss with my cost basis at about 41.    Revenues grew at 42% in the most recent quarter, but revenue fell short of expectations at 87.5MM versus 90.MM.  Historically, this stock has had 30% to 50% pullbacks just to rally higher eventually.  Next earnings in August, sticking with it for now.

FAS - Entered this position this prior week.  If this stock gets back to where it was on 1/1/2009, this could easily double from here.   I have a relatively small position, so i'm sticking with it.

C - Entered this position this prior week.  Similar situation to FAS, could easily double from here.

AIG - Listening to the earnings call and the company is working on repairing this broken company.

YUM - Last week's run-up took us up to the $35 level where resistance was found.  The CEO David Novak excercised a bunch of options and sold a large number of shares in the low $34 range.   That aisde, this company is still the fastest growing retail business on the planet and is a major grower in China.  This is a long-term hold so resisting the temptation to sell May 35 calls here.

USO - Oil had a good rally this week and USO has once again turned up and it looking to challenge its recent high at 32.  Longer term, this trade is going to work as inflation returns and the dollar tanks.  Both of these items are going to take some time to appear, so again patience is key.

SXCI - Stock has recovered from the recent selloff and bounced off support at the 17.75 level.  News indicates a major holder may liquitate since their lockup period expired May 1.  At one point, I had a good profit on this stock, but having sat through a few corrections already, i'm sticking with it.  Earnings due May 7.

QCOM - Recent settlement with BRCM indicates company has to pay almost 900 million to Broadcom over a 4 year period.  That means a 200 million dollar payment this quarter. Ouch!

NEOG - This company is involved in animal feed safety and would seem to benefit (at least psychologically) from swine flu.

MYGN - Stock has dropped off the IBD 100, but i'm sticking with it for now.  Stop is now on a close below 37.

DIA - Broke the weekly range bands to the upside this past week for the first time in ove a year.

AIG - Not much happening here, some asset sales are coming up and will hopefully get this stock going.

YUM - Reported better than expected earnings on Thursday and the stock popped to values not seen since October 2008.  At this point it looks a bit overbought so I may consider taking some profits this week.

One amazing thing about YUM was that they opened 100 new restaurants in China in the quarter and are laying the groundwork for some solid future growth.

USO - Daily range bands went negative on Monday.  Weekly range bands are still negative.  Sticking with it based on re-inflation trade.

SXCI - Stock looking toppy but uptrend intact.  Earnings coming up Thursday May 7th.

QCOM - Earning were due Friday, but they deferred their earning calls unil Monday due to a pending announcement regarding a potential settlement with Broadcom.   Looks like a positive depending on what the settlement will cost.

NEOG - Upgrend remains intact, no news this week.

MYGN - This stock is problematic.  I went from a nice profit and now i'm looking at a -7.40 loss.  The stock was dropped from the IBD-100 with no mention whatsoever.   It also broke the 50-day MA and is still above the rising 200-day MA.  Earnings are due May 5.

AIG - Chart is still positive on the daily range bands, weekly range bands go positive at 2.02.

YUM - Rallied almost 30% off its lows set back in December of 2008.  Coming up against resistance at 33.5.  Earnings due out after the close on Wednesday.  Estimates 0.41 | 0.399 | 0.36 (High | Mean | Low)

USO - Still positive on the daily range bands, weekly still hasn't gone positive.  Sticking with this long term on the basis that oil is at historically cheap levels

SXCI - Uptrend is intact, but short term weakness in evidence.  Volume has increased on down days this past week.

SSO - trend remains up.  Daily range band goes negative at 20.05.  On the weekly side, SSO hasn't gone positive yet, but will do so on a close above 24.

QAADC – AAPL  April 115 Calls – Up almost 200% on this position but April expiration is coming up fast.

I’m looking for a quick move up to 130 to close these out for about $15.   Not sure if I’ll get it since 120 is pretty strong resistance.   Earnings are due out the week after expiration so we may see a run up ahead of earnings.  May take profit on the April 115’s and roll up to the May 130’s.

YUM – The up channel remains intact and no resistance on the chart until 32.50. 

USO – Range bands went long at 26.56 back on 3/4/2009 and have stayed long since.  Sticking with this as a re-inflation trade

SXCI – This IBD-100 pick is looking good – no real resistance until $30

SSO – Nice breakaway gap on Thursday, first resistance is at $25, then $30.

QCOM – Another breakaway gap, no real resistance until 44.  Earnings due Wednesday after the close.

NEOG – Daily chart in a nice uptrend – food and animal safety

MYGN – Stock quietly closed at an 8-year high and making a run at the new all-time high set back in the year 2000 at 60.

FAS – Off to the races based on WFC news, no real resistance until 12.

DIA – Long 100 shares in my retirement account all along that I have been neglecting in my posts.

C – Range bands entry at 2.5 and still looking good.  Earnings due before the open on Friday.

AIG – This is my only looser in the portfolio right now, sticking with it on a break-up or spin-off scenario.

I’m doing positions in reverse alphabetical order so I don’t have to lead off with that 3 letter insurance fiasco that begins with A and ends with G.

QAADC – Up nicely on these Apple April 115 calls. No real resistance until we get to the bottom of the gap at 120.

YUM – Long 2 lots on the taxable side and 1 on retirement account picked this up in the mid 28’s so I’m doing okay.

USO – Still looking constructive and I’m staying long

SXCI – Was a big winner this week and finally starting to pay off.

SSO – Already covered from above.  Position exit is problematic of this rally doesn’t hold

QCOM Already covered in weekly update.

NEOG – Chart looking constructive after some recent sloppy action

MYGN – Consolidating its recent gains. Chart starting to look toppy.  Sticking with it for now.

FAS – Had some surprising strength later in the week.  Hears to fine guys and gals over at the FASB for relaxing those accounting rules.  God Bless America.

C – Working its way out of a hole and looking constructive.

AIG – Probably will expire worthless.  Should have bought RIMM instead.

AIG – Still in positive territory on the range bands, but its going to take a lot of time to unravel the mess this company has become.

C – Still in positive territory on this trade, but financials starting to fade.  C was removed from the Global DOW and the regular Dow 30 could be coming soon.

FAS – Still in the money on this position, sticking with it

MYGN – Big winner for the week per my previous post.

NEOG – Rally attempt meeting resistance, I’m a long term holder

QCOM – still holding 1 lot in the retirement account.  After being called at 35, it was painful to see a rally up to 40.  Will look to reload on a pullback below 35

SXCI – No news this past week, sticking with it

USO – Big pullback in Oil on Friday, but rally has been good.  Seasonal trends favor further upside, but it will take some time.

YUM – Range bands went positive this week, looking to add on a pullback

AIG – Added this week.  Much uncertainty ahead but downside is limited due to already low stock price and small position size in the portfolio.

C – Much farther along in the recovery process than AIG. Price action held up well with Friday’s selloff. I don’t like the prospect of a reverse stock split, because that would just make further room for downside in the stock.  We’ll see.

FAS – In the hole on this position and looking for a bounce-back rally next week

NEOG – Earnings came in a hair short of expectations due to “de-stocking” by distributors and some weakness due to currency translations.  Overall though pretty solid performance.

QCOM – Had a great rally in the past 2 weeks, but unfortunately, I was called away at 35 in my taxable account and left with 100 shares in my retirement account.  Waiting for a drop back below 35 to reload.

SXCI – Added to the S&P/TSX composite index on Friday, should add some index fund buying.

USO – Patience is starting to pay off.  With the sell-off in the dollar, oil prices are on the rise and I’m sticking with it.  Seasonally we are looking at a rally into the summer driving season. 

YUM – Restaurant group has been looking weak and YUM is not immune to further downside.  Sticking with it.

Overall 14% stocks, 86% in cash and equivalents.   I had a decent week which was welcome after recent action.   Having washed out last week the last of my longs, it was time for a bounce!

Watching Fast Money over the weekend, Dr J Najarian recommended FAS the 3X Bull Financial fund.  He raised the prospect that a change in mark-to-market accounting might take the pressure off the financials and make them appear at once to be incredibly undervalued. I’ve been watching this TV show almost 2 years and this is the first time I followed a recommendation and actually made money!

On Monday I picked up 1000 FAS in each account at 2.90.  For the rest of the day it went sideways down.

On Tuesday FAS took off as expected and I picked up another 1000 in each account on at about 3.20.  At the time, the March 4.0 calls were selling at .40.  That looked like free money, so I wrote 10 contracts in each account on the second 1000.  If called, this would be a 34% gain in less than 2 weeks time.

I also picked up 200 SSO in each account on Tuesday in the low 15’s.  Thanks to Dr Cthruu for this pick.  Dr - give me some feedback if you read this and let us all know as your FAS, SSO and TNA trades are playing out.

I also picked up another 100 USO on both sides in the low 29’s.  Saw a story that oil is cheaper now on an inflation adjusted basis than it was 20 years ago.  Higher oil prices ahead but, it’s going to take some time. 

By Wednesday, the rally started to peter out, so I took the first 1000 FAS off the table at about 3.90.  This was a nice gain in a short period of time.  In retrospect, though, I took it off the table way too soon because FAS continued to rally later in the week.  This was a 35% gain in 2 days time, so wasn't about to let this slip away,

I also closed my SSO on Wednesday at 16.25 for a small gain. 

The market continued to rally as the week went on and some of my other positions gained, but not as much as the overall market.  I think I was properly bullish, but took gains off the table too soon.   I could have pulled twice as much from this move had I been more patient. 

I think I could benefit from more contact with other traders.  It’s one of the downsides to trading (and working) in isolation at home.  Give me some feedback if anyone has any success with online interactive trading communities.

Portfolio picked up about between 1.5 and 2 percentage points on the week. This is Thursday's data returns the taxable side are understated because it doesn't include the bank account.

NEOG – Just took out the 2008 low at 19.10 and I’m now underwater on the stock.  Still out-performing the SP-500 over the past few years.

QCOM – Holding up very nicely in this environment, sticking with it.

SXCI – reported good earnings on Thursday and price targets raised to $24-$27 by several analysts.  Stock broke out briefly on the news then fell back. I’m sticking with it.

USO is holding onto recent gains and looking constructive.  Peter Worden did a positive piece on it last evening. 12-bar range bands have gone positive.  Sticking with it and may add bullish April options position this week.

YUM – Has broken down and looks to be challenging the low at $21.50.  I’m taking a beating but staying with it since I like the company and the business.

ETFC – Stock came to rest at 0.80, right at my stop level.  Still with it.

NEOG – Chart not looking to healthy, sticking with it for now

QCOM – Got a good rally this week, missed the chance to sell March calls.  Stock price action looks sloppy and we see lower lows ahead.

SPY - Resting right at the November lows. With all the dividend cuts in the pipeline, we expect to see further lows ahead.  

SXCI broke out to a new recent high earlier this week, but gave up gains by weeks end.  Trend still remains up.

ETFC – Stock was a low as 0.88 during the day.  With my cost at $1.30, i'm loosing faith in this position and may pull the plug on a close below 0.80. 

 LLL – Stock is dangerously close to crossing the lower range band to the downside and ending the bullish move that started on 12/5/08.   Considering a collar, buy stock, sell call, buy put.  More research required.

NEOG – No news, well in the money long term

QCOM – Wait for a rally to sell March Calls.  Holding up pretty well relatively speaking but may get taken down.

SPY – This position is problematic in i'm long about 3 lots with cost in mid 80's.  With all that was going on this week, I missed the opportunity to sell the breakdown (pink bar 4 back).  Clearly headed down to retest the low with probably much lower prices ahead.  More research required.

SXCI – Holding up relatively well, pharmacy benefits plan.

USO – Finally caught a bid on Thursday, but its going to take a lot of patience to get back to my cost basis at 36.5.

YUM – Holding up pretty well, will sell March 30 calls on any type of rally. Also close to range bands breakdown.  Watch carefully.

Overall 30% stocks, 70% cash and equivalents.  Stocks position down 11% since last week since I got shaken out of a lot of my longs.  It was a good week trading, not because I made money, but because I acted decisively to preserve capital.

I noticed last weekend that RIMM crossed the range bands to the downside, so I knew I was in for more pain.   On Tuesday, RIMM quickly broke down.  So I covered my Feb  50 short calls for 0.30, having been paid 3.00, this was a 2.70 profit.   Sold the stock I bought for 47.15 for 46.38 for a loss of 70 cents.  So I made +2.0 points in each account with this position and was the only profitable leg in the whole RIMM fiasco.

Next, I covered the Feb 55 calls.  Having been paid, 2.5, I covered for 0.05 for a gain of 2.45.  But I got crushed in the stock, having paid 52.5, sold at 45.40, lost 7.1 points on that.  So I closed this leg of the trade at -4.65.   

In retrospect, I think my mistake here was trying to do a covered call position in such a strongly trending stock.  Sticking with straight directional trading with would make more sense while leaving the covered call strategy with less volatile stocks like YUM and QCOM.

Washed out of CVC at 13.00, having paid 17.12, this was a -4.12 point loss.  I didn't really have a good exit plan for this trade and the results reflected that.

Sold ISYS – Plan was to exit on a close below 10.5 which I got on 2/17.  Extra slippage kicked in on the selloff and got out about 10.1.  Having paid 12.45, this was loss of -2.35.

Sold GHM – Plan was to sell on a close below 9.  More slippage kicked in and I didn’t get the sell off until about 8.40.  Having paid 11.45, this was a loss of -3.05.  Hard to believe this stock was over $100 less than a year ago.   

So all of the above results in a big -21.42 loss. At one point, I was up on all of the above positions.  But they all moved down after I sold them (most notably RIMM), so I did the right thing taking these positions off.

Option expiration was the bright side of the week, and I bagged these profits:

-       QCOM Feb 35 Call expired worthless - +1.20 gain

-       MYGN Feb 75 Call Assigned, Stock called away at $75 for  +4.70 gain

-       LLL Feb 80 Call expired worthless - +3.2 gain

-       YUM Feb 30 Call expired worthless - +2.7 gain

All that adds up to +11.8 which minimizes some of the loss from above. 

 

CVC – In the house of pain here having with stock at 13.90 having paid 17.12.  They offered to buy back some debt which gave the stock a lift on Friday.  Close to pulling the plug on this position.

ETFC – Nothing new this week, cost $1.3

GHM – Last weeks range band crossover was a false signal and we may have to say goodbye on a loss below 9, cost 11.50.

ISYS –Paid 12.45 will exit on a close below 10.50.

LLL – Bounced off the lower range band on Friday.  Once it becomes clear I won’t be called on Feb 80's, will sell March calls on the other half of position.

MYGN - Stock still looking good, will get called for a profit next Friday.

NEOG – No news, well in the money long term

QCOM – In the money on all around , may get called against short 35 calls.

RIMM – Still long 1 lot at 47 against short 50 call and 2 lots at 52 against 55 calls.  Trying to hang in there until Feb expiration, then roll short calls over to March.

SPY – Waiting for that rally to 90 to sell March calls and 100 to sell April calls.  Had an opportunity to sell those calls earlier this week, but overestimated the upside.

SXCI – Long 2 lots in each account now, cost 19. and 20.50, slightly in the money

USO – In the house of pain on this having paid 36.5 early this year.  I'm down 11 points on this position and still with it.  Clearly a case of loss avoidance.

YUM – Love those crunchy beef tacos, cost basis just under 29.

Identical positions in both taxable and 401K rollover accounts:

CVC – Hopefully finding a bottom here.  In the hole almost 2 points having paid 17.12., but I’m sticking with it.

ETFC – Looks like they are not going to get TARP funding, but I don’t care.  At my cost of 1.3, it’s basically a call option with minimal downside.

GHM – Decent rally showing a positive crossover of the upper range band.  Having paid 11.45 it’s a wash now minus commissions.

ISYS – Earnings out, need to review, paid 12.45

LLL – Company came out and raised the dividend this week!   In the money on both stock and short calls

NEOG – No news, well in the money long term

QCOM – Up channel remains intact.  Cost about 34.5, may get called on my short 35 calls  Add to at 34 and under.

RIMM – Added some more just below 60.  Could go much, much higher watch this and add to as it moves higher.  Already long stock and short calls, stock will be called.

SPY – Waiting for that rally to 92 to sell March calls and 100 to sell April calls.

SXCI – Added to this week, already  covered

USO – Nearly sold this on Friday, but it held the low.  Way down on this having paid 36.5 but I’m sticking with it.

YUM – Love those Chicken Quesadillas, cost basis under 35.

Identical positions in both taxable and 401K rollover accounts:

CVC – Chart action is looking sloppy and I missed the chance to sell some calls.  That aside, I am a customer and while they have a lot of debt, they are a solid company so I’m sticking with it.

ETFC – Record Daily Average Revenue Trades (DARTs) of 216,000, up 18% quarter over quarter.  Plus they added 97,000 accounts and now have over 4.5 million accounts.  There’s a profitable company trying to fight its way out from under the bad mortgage debt.  Look for another baby TV commercial on Super Sunday.

GHM – Earning are out and looking good.  Stock repurchase program added.  They sell to petrochemical industry so oil related.

ISYS – Closed below lower range band.  Earning due Monday, let’s hope for a pop or we will have to say so long.

LLL – Earnings were rock solid and don’t seem to be affected much by the economic downturn.  They did guide down for 2009, but the govt seems to have a lot of money to spend on C3-ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance).  Seems capped at 80 so short call should come in.

NEOG – Had a nice pop this week.  The peanut salmonella scare this week highlighted food safety.  May add some more

QCOM – Already covered below.

RIMM – Rally is getting tired, but I’m short calls all around so I’m content to wait it out.

SPY – Waiting for a rally to sell calls

SXCI – Nice upside breakout on Friday, next stop in the lower 20’s!

USO – Hard to see oil going much lower here so I’m going to let it ride. Looking for opportunities to add to energy positions this week

YUM – Already covered, love that Taco Bell

CVC – Stock is pulling back and close to support at the lower trendline and lower range band.   If this stock pull back much more, I may have to pull the plug.

ETFC – Earnings coming up Tuesday after the close.  Soft stop below 80 cents, still love the retail assets

GHM – Range bands went negative, but seems to be holding support at 9.  Earnings are coming up this Friday before the open.

ISYS – Close to lower range band like the company so I’m sticking with it

LLL – Still holding 2 lots and short 1 Feb 80 call.  Earnings due this Thursday before the open

NEOG – Animal and food safety.  Chart action sloppy but I’m a long term holder

QCOM – Missed my chance to reload on Tuesday when the stock briefly pulled back to 44. Look to reload anywhere below 44.5.

RIMM – Next stop is the 55 strike.  I’m now short calls in all my RIMM, so I’m letting it ride

SPY – Waiting for a rally to sell calls

SXCI – All the news is out and hopefully we will hold support right here at 17 bucks.

USO – This position has had my biting my nails all week.  It held the recent low at 27.7 so I’m sticking with it.  Important to realize that oil usually bottoms right about this time of year and peaks in July-August, so seasonality is in our favor.

YUM – Love that Taco Bell

LLLBP – Short LLL Feb 80 against ½ position

RFYBL – Short RIMM Feb 50 call against whole position

RFYBJ – Short RIMM Feb 55 call against whole position

YUMBF – Short YUM Feb 30 call against 1/2 position

Overall 42% stocks, 58% cash and equivalents.  Stocks position up 2% since last week due to new positions in RIMM.

Stocks got beaten with an ugly stick again this week and neither the technical’s nor fundamentals argue in favor of higher stock prices.   This past week’s price action is a stark reminder that (in the words of J Cramer) stocks are just pieces of paper. Without earning and/or dividends in support, not even free money from the US Treasury can get them going.

So the strategy for now is to keep a high cash position and take advantage of E*Trade’s complete savings account with a 3% yield. Between that and some selective trading should be able to beat the S&P.

CVC – Chart still bullish since range bands issue a buy signal back on 12/5/2008

ETFC – Terrible week for the financials, but I’m still a believer in ETFC as well as a customer

ETN – Covered this above already

GHM – Range bands went negative, and I’m in the hole 2 points, but not ready to throw in the towel yet.  This was a IBD 100 stock with good fundamentals.  Earning due out Jan 30.

ISYS – Chart still positive, fundamentals good.  Defense sector is one of the few industries that has not gotten crushed by the economic meltdown. 

LLL – Another defense industry player already covered above

NEOG – Animal safety play.  Stock has been very volatile lately but it’s a long-term winner and I’m sticking with hit.

QCOM – Love this company long term.  Half my position got called away, if stock gets back to 34, I will reload and sell the 35 call.

RIMM – Already covered below

SPY – Holding onto at close to cost.  Will sell 90 calls on a rally back up

SXCI – Health Care cost reduction play, similar to HMSY.   This an IBD 100 stocks, and Analysts raised targets.  Looking for a move into the 20’s.

USO – I’m deep in the hole on this position having paid 36.50 not long ago. Range bands flashed a sell on Thursday, and I should be out of this position already.  Oil’s not going zero, but I could easily see USO going lower.

YUM – Long term favorite, love Taco Bell.  Selling the 30 calls great since the stock closed at 29.90.  Will look to sell some new calls on any type of rally.

Stay defensive and trade well.