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Positions Review - 1/22/2010

Wow, what a difference 3 days makes!   Stocks started off 2010 with a nice run, and all the broad market ETF's made marginal new highs this past Tuesday.  

Then BAM - the one-two punch.  First punch was the Obama talking about taxing the banks to recover all the TARP money - the TARP money they already paid back!  Second punch was talk about financial regulation where banks are not allowed to trade for their own accounts.  This double whammy whacked financials and took down the good as well as the bad.  Goldman was down 6% for the week (despite record earnings), JP-Morgan was down 10% and lowly Citigroup was down 17% on some disappointing earnings.  For the same period, SPY was down about 4%.

Let's go through the positions.

AAPL - Made a marginal new high closing this past Tuesday at 215.04.  Then the market came in and whacked it down and it closed for the week at 197.75.   On the technical side the stock closed just barely below the lower range band at 197.94.  Volume swelled on this selloff.

The upcoming week is going to be a big one for AAPL.  

First earnings are out Monday after the close and average estimates are for 2.06 per share.  Second is the big Tablet announcement scheduled for Wednesday.  Analysts are expecting something between a tablet with a touch-screen keyboard, and a Mac in tablet form.  On the downside, analysts expect the device to canniblize sales of both the iPhone on the lower end and the Mac on the upper end.  Net result is a wash for earnings but trouble for e-reader makers Sony and Amazon.   We'll be watching but are going to try and hang in there for the long term.

ABVT - The stock is hanging tough and the company announced connectivity with data center companies Telehouse and Equinix (EQIX).   With my entry at $66.70, I clearly top-ticked this trade.  I'm sticking with this trade and I believe earnings will come through.  IBD says "Find support in latest pullback to 10-week line.

AUY - I top-ticked this entry on Yamana, but at this point i'm sticking with it for Gold exposure. It has a very similar pattern to GLD.

C - There's not much good to say about Citi, except maybe that they are turning a corner.  There seems to be more upside than downside, but its going to take some time.  Analysts are estimating profits of 7 cents a share in 2010 and 34 cents a share in 2011.  So from a EPS perspective, they appear to be turning a corner.  Q1 2010 results should tell us whether they are headed in a positive direction.

CML - Still up slightly on this position.  Compellent won the Infoworld Technology award for the 3rd straight year on its SAN storage technology. 

DIA, EEM, EFA, SPY, XLB - All the EFT's got battered this week.   I'm up on SPY, DIA and EEM and down on the others.  I'm an investor now, not a trader so i'm hanging in there.

HMSY - Now loaded up with HMSY on this recent rally which was sharply reversed on the news that Healthcare reform might not be going through after all.  Stock sliced through the lower range band on the daily, but still well above the weekly.  Looking to lighten up on a rally here.

NEOG - No news here, market dragging us down.

SXCI - Pelted by the apparent failure of Health care reform passing the congress.   The stock had a raft of analyst upgrades in the past 2 weeks.  Technically, the stock appears to be rolling over and i'm caught long 100 shares with an entry of $54.12.

USO - Should have taken profits recently at $41, oh well.  Back in the hole again on this position.

XLB - Select sector materials, now up only slightly on this position.

YUM - On a sad note, Glen Bell Jr, founder of Taco Bell died this past week.  He was 86 years old.   "The entire Taco Bell family of franchisees and employees are deeply saddened by the loss of the founder of Taco Bell. Glen Bell was a visionary and innovator in the restaurant industry, as well as a dedicated family man," said Greg Creed, president and chief concept officer of Taco Bell. "His innovative business acumen started out of humble beginnings and created one of the nation's largest restaurant chains in Taco Bell. Mr. Bell introduced an entire nation to the taco and Mexican cuisine."

CD Review

Taxable

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.30% 05/17/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

HMSY

hmsybreakoutHMSY is the chart of the week.

IBD ran an excellent piece on HMSY over the weekend in their 'View from the Top' column in their year-end special. 

HMSY tracks billing and reimbursements for Medicare, Medicaid and private insurers. The company has technology that identifes billing errors and saves governments big dollars.  The company operates 80% on a contingency basis, getting paid only if they recover funds.  The company saves over 1 billion a year for its clients.  Given the amount of money the government spends on health care (and will be spending forward) this company is well positioned for earnings growth.

On the technical side, the company broke $50 for the first time last week, then had brief pullback to the lower $48 area.  I added to my position on the breakout last week and today the stock blased out to a new all-time high.

 

Positons Review - 1/4/2010

AAPL - Speculation is swirling around Apple's new tablet device.  Details are sketchy, but the device is expected to be the game-changer that the iPhone was for the cell-phone industry. 

It looks like the e-reader category has finally reached the mainstream of consumer electronics thanks to the Amazon Kindle and an endorsement from Oprah. 

On the technical side, the stock is bumping up against an all-time high and i'm expecting a move up to $220 shortly.  Cramer has a target of $300 and many brokerages have targets in the $240 to $260 range. 

AUY - AUY and GLD are now both below the daily range bands, but still positive on the weekly range banks.   On the weekly chart, GLD is sitting right at the lower range bands, so its probably a good time to add to Gold positions if you're a long-term bull.  I'm not in a hurry to add new positions.

C - Financials are rounding a small bottom and downside momentum appears to be waning.

CML - Compellent had a good week last week and IBD points out that the chart has made an entire cup-with-a-handle retracement since its IPO back in 2007.  On the fundamental side, EPS surged 233% as sales rose 31% to 32 million.  For the current quarter, analysts expect a 50% EPS growth with another %30 rise in sales.

DIA, EEM, EFA, SPY, XLB - Despite a rocky last day of 2009, all these ETF's are still looking strong and well above the daily and weekly range bands.   EFA is the sloppiest of the bunch approaching the lower range band.

HMSY - Is the chart of the week, see my separate post on that.

KO - Coke is sitting right on the lower range band and appears to be taking a rest, probably a result of the recent strenght in USD.

MYRX - The daily is clearly in a downtrend since the company's decision to acquire Javelin Pharmaceuticals.

NEOG - Stock continues on an uptrend after recent good earnings. 

SXCI - No news this past week except for a technical alert: "SmarTrend's Trend Spotter Sees Continued Upward Momentum on Shares of SXC Health Solutions (SXCI) - 12/30/2009."

USO - Stock had a crossover on the daily range band to the upside and the weekly chart remains positive.

YUM - No real news, stock is stuck in a sideways pattern.

 

 

CD Review

Taxable

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.30% 05/17/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

 

Positions Review - 12/24/2009

SPY made a new closing high for the year at last Thursday's close

The chart on the left shows SPY with price bars painted pink for bars that made a new 52-week-closing high.

The lower portion of the chart shows a count of SP-500 stocks making 52-week closing highs on that date.

Last Thursday was the 3rd highest day on the chart with 114 stocks in the SP-500 making new 52-week closing highs. This close forms the 3rd lower high in a wedge formation and shows the power of last Thursday's action - even though volume was on the light side.

StockFinder is an amazing tool and this is just a small example of what you can find out with a bit of work and imagination.

Back to positions review....

AAPL had a great week, will cover that stock in a separate post.

AUY - Yamana Gold is weakening a bit.  I'm starting to think AUY is a poor proxy for the price of gold and I should just buy GLD instead.   The only plus is that AUY has a dividend and GLD does not.

C - Not much going on with Citi.  I'm in the hole about 1/2 point with my cost at about 3.80.

CML - Compellent closed at a new 52-week high on Friday.  IBD ran a piece in the 'Stocks on the News' column with a headline "Compellent Clears base in Light Trade".  Analysts are expecting a 50% earnings growth when they report on Feb 10th.  IBD also points out that volume has dried up since its breakout day on 2x normal volume back on Dec 18th.   I'm up about $1.50 per share with my average entry at 22.25.

DIA - SPY made a new yearly closing high on Friday, but SPY did not follow suit.  I'm sticking with it and considering it part of my broad market exposure.

EEM - Emerging Market's ETF fund.  Chart has been withering lately and not keeping pace with SPY.

EFA - This position was added this week in both accounts as part of myself working toward a target allocation which i'll cover in a later post, probably in the coming week.

HMSY make a new all-time closing high on Friday.   No news this week, earnings are not due until Feb 18th.  Company will present at the JP Morgan Healthcare conference on January 11th at 5PM EST.

KO - Coke is basing nicely here and proabably in a good add-to position.  After making a 52-week high back on 12/11/2009, the chart has found some support and is basing.    With a 2.8% dividend yield, and a PE of 21, this stock is looking good.

MYRX - A New York law firm is investigating possible breach of fiduciary duty by the board of Javelin Pharmaceuticals by selling out to Myraid Pharama at the equivalent of $1.50 per share.  Clearly some sabre-rattling going on here with Javelin stock at $1.27 per share.    In the press release, they mention the stock "recently" traded at $2.00 per share (back in September), but since traded as low as just over $1.00 per share.  Trying to goose management into getting a better offer no doubt.

NEOG - Stock is coming up againsts the recent all-time high at 24.34 and the shares are stalling just short of the all-time high.   Going over recent share sales, a bunch of executives sold shares in the fall of 2009, but the shares are up about 12% on average since they sold.  These sales look more like protecting profits than reflecting any underlying weakless in the business.

SPY - Hit a new year-to-date high last Friday.  My target assett allocation indicates 28% SP-500 (SPY) so i'm going to add-to on weakness.

SXCI - Stock make a new all-time high on Friday closing at 55.35.  The health-care stocks have blown above multi-month resistance that has been caused by uncertainty caused by health-care reform now in debate in the US-Congress.

USO - I've been laboring under this position for almost a year now.  I'm tired of paying money to the exchanges to keep rolling these contracts over and paying no dividends.  A much better choice would be sticking with OIH  - Oil Services Holders.  But there is a downside.  If the equity market collapses, OIH will implode while USO will hold up.    Conclusion:  pick a portion of my account that should be invested in energy invest 25% in USO and 75% in OIH.

XLB - Select sector materials - closed just short of a new all-time high.   The sell-off in gold and materials have kept this EFT from falling through the floor.  Need a pure-play on the anti-inflation-anti-fiat-currency-camp and haven't found it yet.  Real Estate perhaps?

YUM - Great article in WSJ.com that I re-tweeted about how YUM is trying to cater to the 18-25 age crowd in with Taco Bell in India.   Need to get polished up on my Twitter-tools.

CD Review

Taxable

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.30% 05/17/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

 

Compellent Technologies - CML

Compellent Technology (CML) is chart of the week.  The stock made a new 2-year high Friday and made its highest close since its initial public offering back in 2007. 

Up volume has been crushing down volume on both the daily and weekly charts. Also, the stock closed above the upper range band (lite blue bar) which is also a plus.

On the fundamental side, the stock has an IBD composite rating of 99.  Earnings are not due until 2/11/2010 and i'm up about $1.10 per share since my entry back on 12/1/2009.

 

Positions Update

 

ABVT is the chart of the week.  The stock made new all-time highs 4 out of 5 days in the past week.  Friday was a particularly good day on excellent volume.  

On the technical side, ABVT moved up to #25 on the IBD-100 this past week and IBD indicates "6% past 57.03 buy point on after pull back to 10-week average."  On the fundamental side, IBD reminds us that this company has more than 2 million miles of Fiber Optic networks cable deployed.

Unfortunately, I took profits in ABVT at $53.30 and missed the last 7 points of the move so this is one that got away.  I'm looking to re-enter on any type of pullback.  The stock split 2-1 back in September and is up 50% since then. I expect it to run to 80 then split 2x1 again probably by end of Q2 2010.

Back to positions review.

AAPL - This stock is looking pretty sick and has had 2 crossovers of the daily range bands to the downside in the past few weeks.  This week's rally failed right at the upper range bands so i'm probably going to take profits this coming week.

AUY - The rally in gold failed in spectacular fashion last Friday and i'm now in the hole slightly on this position.

C - Citi 's is paying off the TARP with a 20 billion dollar stock offering.  That's good news of course, but further diluting current shareholders, but it had to be done.

CML - Stock is moving sideways, no recent news.

DIA - Up decently on this position but DIA seems to have found resistance right at the 105.0 level.   Nothing new to report here, but most components are looking good.  In fact, 25 of 30 components were above the daily range bands.   The only Dow-30 components below the daily range bands are: DD, JPM, KFT, TRV and XOM.

This ETF is a strategy in itself - just buy DIA!  These are all solid, well-managed companies many with multi-national business exposure.  And with the dividend yield over 2.5% (according to Esignal), this ETF is a winner!

EEM - Emerging Markets ETF.  This fund seems to follow the global equity markets and doesn't offer much in the way of diversification, but definitely needs to be part of every long-term portfolio.  Need to work on the allocation.

HMSY - No news since last week, chart is marking time.

KO - This could have been chart of the week (yet again) and i'm up over 13% since my entry at 52 back on 9/14/2009.  This is a DIA component and is a Warren Buffett favorite.

MYRX - No news this past week and chart is marking time.

NEOG - Neogen is due to report earnings this coming Friday.  This is an animal feed and food safety play.  Its total boring and I love it - up up 50% since my entry back in 2007.

SPY - Similar looking chart to DIA but not as strong.  Clearly evidence that additional money going into this market is going to the blue chips (DIA) versus SPY.

USO - Once again i'm down on this position and i'm unhappy with my energy exposure here. The Fast Money guys on CNBC told me a long time ago that USO is a lousy energy play due to the ongoing cost of rolling over the futures contracts.   They indicate that OIH (Energy Services Holdrs) is a much better play because it represents real companies in the energy space that have earnings and pay dividends.   Looking to build a position in OIH going forward.   What can I say - i'm slow to learn sometimes.

XLB - Select materials - metals took a hit recently, but this one is holding up.

YUM - Stock is marking time and I think is somewhat under apprecaiated at the present time.

CD Review

Taxable

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.30% 05/17/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

For now, plan your target asset allocation by sector and get ready to start building.  Next year will be well under way before you know it!

Positions Update

HMSY is the chart of the week.  Its coming up on the right-hand side of a nice little cup formation.  Volume has been decent lately with some mild accumulation in progress. Not much happening on the news front.

AAPL - Stock is resting right at the top of the lower band and is definitely threatening to break below the lower range band.  The stock is up only 2 of the past 14 sessions, and volume has been increasing to the downside here.  

Between Microsoft, Google and Apple, its a clash of the technology titans, particularly in the hand-held device space. I'm starting to think that Apple is holding themselves back by not supporting Verizon's network in the US, since its so much better than AT&T's.  They need to adopt the multi-carrier approach that RIMM has done and do it fast. 

By the way - have you seen AT&T commercials indicating how great their coverage is?  Its their lame attempt to combat Verizon's "There's a map for that" commercials.  Come on AT&T, we know the difference between 2G and 3G and those ads are an insult.  But what else can they do?  Wireless networks are extremely expensive to build and Verizon has a huge lead in the US.

AUY - Gold took a hit.  Still up on this position, but not by much.

C - Financials continue to lauguish, and even industry leaders GS and JPM are taking a break.  On the bright side, BAC announced it was paying off TARP which gave the sector a boost and gave BAC a 5x volume surge.  BAC actually crossed the daily range band to the upside Friday, take a look at the chart to your left.

CML - This is a new position this week stock made a good pop with earnings news back on 11/18 and since has been marking time, moving sideways.

DIA - This ETF seems to have found a lid at about 105.  It could be just marking time here which is okay since its had a pretty good run.

EEM - is up 5% since its recent low back on 11/27/2009.

HMSY - already covered above.

KO - Stock is looking sharp and is up 8 out of the last 10 sessions.

MYRX - The company is in phase 2 trials for a drug called MPC-4326 which is is being developed by Myriad Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for the oral treatment of HIV-1 infection.  The stock didn't do much on the news.

NEOG - Neogen purchased the food safety business of a San Diego, CA based company called Gen-Probe.  Stock is good good, slow and steady.

SPY is looking good, similar chart to DIA

USO- Went negative on the daily range bands last week, but still positive on the weekly.  Looking at the chart to the left, however, the last 2 sell signals have been losers, so i'm staying put on the long side.

XLB - Select sector materials.  Took a big hit on Friday with the sell-off in Gold.

YUM - Took a big on Friday with a story that their same store sales are declining in both the US and mainland China.  But they still expect to grow EPS at 10% next year due to 1,400+ new units in YUM China and Yum Restaurants International (YRI).  Clearly not a positive development, but we're sticking with it for now.

CD Review

Taxable

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.30% 05/17/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

That's it, have a great week and keep your power dry.

Positions update

AAPL - I closed out of my AAPL Jan 150 call at a small loss this past week.  I'm still long 50-shares of AAPL and looking for a pullback to the 190 area to reload, if we get it.

AUY - Following the chart of GLD - big gap down from the top but still in a screaming uptrend.  Too late for long side entry here.

C - Most of the financials are now below the daily range bands, but still well above the weeklies.  GS, JPM, BAC and the rest are all now below the daily range bands.

DIA - is starting to show some signs of distribution, but still holding up relatively well versus its peers.

EEM - Clearly showing some signs of distribution where the red bars are bigger than than the green bars recently.

HMSY - There was a good article on this company in the "Under the Radar" column on http://www.thestreet.com back on 11/11/2009.   Granted, i'm 3 weeks late in reading this article, but the chart is still looking good.

KO - Stocked gapped down on Friday with the Dubai news, but still just coming back to the upper edge of the upper-range band.

MYRX - Stocks is now in full-fledged downtrend on the daily.

NEOG - Stock is cooling off with the rest of the market.

SPY - Also gapped down on the Dubai news. 

USO - Went negative on the daily range bands, now for the 3rd time since June, all of which were bad signals, the weekly is still up and doesn't go negative until USO crosses 32.07 on a closing basis.

XLB - Chart is looking very much like SPY and DIA.

YUM - Nothing much going on this week.

CD Review

Taxable

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.30% 05/17/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

That's it, have a great week and keep your power dry.

Positions Update

KO is the chart of the week.  CNBC ran a special on Coke this past week and it showcased the fact that this global powerhouse is as much about marketing as about the underlying product.  Coke is the most recognized brand on the planet.

On the technical side, Coke broke out to a new 52-week high on Friday.  Volume has been holding up well and i'm up about 8% since my entry just above 52 back on 9/14.

Also, insider Kent Muhtar purchased a total of 2,800 shares on November 6, 2009.  Over the last 5 years insiders have on average purchased 148,259 shares each year.  Presumably, insiders expect the stock price increase to continue.

Back to alphabetical positions review.

AAPL/APVAJ - Apple computer is back from the recent sell-off and has settled just south of the recent closing high at 205.20.  The company announced on Thursday its going to open 40-50 stores in 2010,  with half of them outside the US.   Adding outlets in London, Paris and Shanghai, they are looking to expand the brand globally which is very smart and will benefit from a weakening dollar.

Apple has a lot of competition between RIMM, Palm, Motorola and now Google but still are the kings of cool leading the way in Cramer's Mobile Internet Tsunami.

AUY - Gold continued to a new high this week and Yamana participated. UBS raised their target on Yamana to $15.

C - Citi and the other financials are looking pretty sick.  C and BAC are now below the daily range bands but still above the weekly range bands.   Sector leaders JPM and GS are also below their daily range bands, but holding well above their weekly bands.

Paulson & Co., one of the world's largest hedge fund firms, held 300 million shares of Citigroup (C) at the end of September, according to a regulatory filing late Friday.  This position was added in the past 3 months and was worth 1.45 billion on Sept 30th.

CERN - Cerner is a new position as of last Monday.   I'm going to have to watch this one closely as the chart is showing some signs of distribtion.

DIA - The Dow-30 ETF is looking good.  Components KO, MCD, DIS, HPQ, MSFT, UTX. WMT, and AXP are all looking really good.

EEM - Emerging Markets ETF is looking sharp and ready to breakout above the recent high at 41.50.

HMSY - This chart is a thing of beauty and I only wish I held more.  No news to report this past week.

MYRX - Earnings came out Friday and the company reported its first quarter as an independent company since its spin-off from Myriad Genetics earlier this year.  Since the company has no history as a stand-alone, its hard to get a handle on what the results mean.  But the market liked it and the stock popped on the best volume in about a month.

NEOG - James Herbert, Chief Executive Officer of Neogen Corporation (NEOG) rung the closing bell at the NASDAQ on Friday 11/13/2009.  This stock cap has a small-town time feel.

SPY - Stock looks ready to pop out to a new high for the year on Monday's mutual fund buying.

USO - Stock dropped below the upper range band on Friday, but i'm sticking with it.

XLB - Select Sector Materials, stock has a big distribution day on Thursday, but i'm sticking with it.

YUM - No news this past week, but I found an article from October 30th that the company opened its 13,000th restaurant outside China and the US by YRI - Yum Restaurants.

CD Review

Taxable

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.30% 05/17/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

DISCOVER BK GREENWOOD DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/16/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

Positions Update

ABVT  (Abovenet) is once again the chart of the week.   Earnings came out on Friday and beat expectations with actual earnings of $0.96---22 cents above the consensus estimate. ABVT also issued earnings guidance for next quarter that is above current analyst expectations.

On the technical side, ABVT broke out to a new all-time closing high of 53.71 on good, but not record volume.  

ABVT is #23 on the IBD 100.  IBD's technical blurb indicates “Just above 53.54 buy point after bounce off 10-week average”.

Back to alphabetical positions review. 

AAPL / APVAJ had quite a comeback last week.  After taking about 8 points profit on my first 100 shares, I bought 50-shares last week just under 190 a share.  The stock is rallying back on declining volume, and is presumably going to challenge the upper range band this coming week.    It remains to been seen whether it will break above the upper band at 199.50.

I’m also long the Apple January 150 call, and now I’m in the hole about 10 points.  Looking for a big rebound back to a new all time high by 3rd week of January.

AUY is once again on the move.  Gold moved out to a new record high this past week.  Several analysts raised targets to 14.75 to 15 about 17% above where it is now.

In his blog post on 10/10 Dr Cthru (http://cthruu.blocks.com) indicates he long a “boatload” of XLG.  Look for higher prices ahead.  IAMGold (IAG) is now #11 in the IBD 100. 

C – Citi hasn’t been able to get out of its own way lately and is below the daily, but above the weekly range bands.   It’s going to be along slog.

DIA is looking sharp and now above both the daily and weekly range bands.  Note how DIA held above the daily range band on this recent sell-off while most major indexes broke down.

EEM – Recently went negative on the daily range bands, but has bounced nicely off the weekly range band on the weekly chart.

HMSY – This chart is a thing of beauty and this position is a screaming add-to.  Fundamentals are smoking also.

KO – This stock had a nice rebound this past week and never went negative on the daily or weekly range bands.  Their bottling division (CCH) had good earnings this past week.  The chart is a thing of beauty, but volume has been tepid in the past week.

MYRX – Myraid Pharma has cooled off since the big news back in October about its oral anti-AIDS formulation. 

NEOG has gone negative on the daily range bands, but seems to have found support at $30.  Sticking it it long-term.

SPY – Up nicely on this position and I’m sticking with it.

USO – gapped down this past week, but seems to have found support on the top of the daily range bands.  Staying positive for now.

XLB – Select Sector Materials ETF has been a rocky ride lately, triggering a series of buys and sells on the daily range bands lately.  I’m sticking with it as an inflation play.

YUM – Is looking really good and was started as a buy this past week by Janney Capital Markets.  Chart is moving sideways, but has come back recently on good volume after this recent sell-off.

CD Review

Taxable

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

DISCOVER BK GREENWOOD DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/16/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

Need to buy some CD’s in my Taxable account this week.

 

Positons Update

HMSY is the chart of the week.  On Friday, the company announced Q4 earnings of 30 cents a share beating Analysts estimates by 2 cents a share. 

The company also raised estimates for 2010.  Also, the chart looks great and broke out to a new all-time high on Friday.  I'm up slightly on this position and they way things have gone lately, its time to sell!  In all seriousness, this is a great company and i'm sticking with it.

AAPL/APVAJ - I'm now long 50 in each account of Apple just under 190.  I'm also still long the Apple January 150 call and in the hole about 15 points.  I'm in deep dudy on the Jan 150 calls and we'll see what this week brings.  

As I pointed out in the weekly update, Apple crossed the 28-bar range bands to the downside on Friday.  So the trend is now downward.  The upper range band is now almost 198 so we could well see a rally up to that point and the downtrend could sta intact.  Also, Seeking Alpha ran a story listing a 1/2 dozen reasons why the stock should be $80 a share.  As Cramer would say ouchy.

ABVT - Abovenet - Earnings due out after the close this coming Thursday November 5th.  Chart is showing some signs of distribution and I missed a beautiful change to sell and take a $5 per share profit this past week at $53.  Maybe next time.

AUY - As expected, I top-ticked this trade completely and i'm now in the hole about $1.68 on this position. But its only 100 shares, so i'm sticking with it.  Its my gold play and resource inflation play.

C - Citi lost its slugout with the 28-bar daily range bands and finally broke below that line this past week,  buts its still hanging above the 28-bar weekly range bands.  Citi goes negative on the weekly range bands at 3.02.   With cost a 3.82, i'm still in the money, but not for long.

DIA - I'm in the hole on this position on with recent cost at 100.80.  I topped-ticked this trade in the worst way.

EEM - Emerging Markets ETF. I'm in the hold about a buck-fifty, sticking with it.

HMSY - Already covered above - call me Mr Brightside.

KO - Still up on this position with a cost at about $52.  Crosses the lower range band at 52.88 and i'm gone.

MYRX - This MYGN spin-off broke below the lower range band on Wednesday but it took me until now to notice.  iStockAnalyst.com had an interesting piece about how corporate spinoffs are typically a great buy and cite MYRX as an example.

NEOG - Stock had a higher-volume sell day on Friday, but help up pretty well all things considered.  Good article in Flexnews.com (Business news for the food industry) about how the company is take a slow and steady approach to its business in China.

SPY - Down about a buck and a quarter, but just got a $50 dividend payment which is about one-half of one percent of the position.  And i've only held it for under 2 months, so that's about a 3% dividend yield annualized.

USO - This EFT has been a great performer recently, and i'm up about 7% since my entry at $36.50.  This is another inflation, commodity related plan and i'm sticking with it.

XLB - Select Sector Materials, down about 6% just under $2 on 200 shares, and i'm sticking with it, again materials as an inflation hedge.

YUM - Just go back from Taco Bell and i'm a long-term fan.  Okay, same-store sales are flat in the US, but they are kicking butt in China.  Think outside the bun.

CD Listing - Looks Like Wamu comes due tomorrow..

Taxable

WASHINGTON MUT BK FA STOCKTON CA CD FDIC INSURED TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/02/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

DISCOVER BK GREENWOOD DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/16/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

Have a great week!

Weekly Update - 10/30/2009

How quickly things change from one week to the next.  Last week, I was feeling good, and making back some of my losses. One week later, bang! Its all gone and i'm back in the hole again.  Oh the pain.....

AAPL was the heart-breaker of the week.  After a spectacular leap up above $200 on earnings it got crushed and ended the week at 188.50.  I sold my long stock at 194.46 on Wednesday.  But I rode the Jan 150 calls all the way down and i'm looking at a whopping $1500 loss each contact on that position.

Looking at the daily chart, AAPL has actually closed below the lower 28-bar range bands.  That's a major sell signal and a bit shocking since I picked up 50 shares in each account on Friday just under 190. Look out below.

On the bright side, I bailed out of SXCI and took a decent profit after having been up much more.  ABVT was another heart-breaker.  With a high of $53 mid-week, it gave it all back and close the week at $48.40, just above my entry at $48. 

In this market, you have to sell the stock when everything looks amazing on the chart.  Its the exact opposite of what i'm conditioned to do, which is hang on for the big winner. Oh the pain.....

Our buddies over at IBD have switched to 'Market in Correction."  Its like after all that ridiculous enthusiasm about this economy, we are finally getting our long over due fall sell-off.

At this point, all I can do is find the sunshine inside and live to trade another day. See you on the positions update.

 

Positons Review

Abovenet (ABVT) is the chart of the week. 

We had a convincing breakout of the 28-bar range-bands back on 9/23/2009 and again on Friday 10/23/2009.  IBD says "Keeps weekly closes above 10-week line since July, thin stock."  IBD has a composite rating of 98 and gives it A- on Acumulation/Distribution

No earnings on the horizon and news is quiet

Now back to alphabetical positions review.

AAPL - Long Apple stock and well in the money.  Cramer loves this stock and calls the greatest growth story in the market now.  His price target of $300 comes from estimates for next year of making $13 a share.  Based on their growth rate of 30%, he says growth managers will pay 30-times the $13 a share earnings or $390 a share.  He dropped the extra $90 just because he didn't think people would believe him.

Seasonally, we have the wind at our back since the 4th quarter calendar year is typically the strongest for Apple stock with a seasonal peak just before MacWorld in the 3rd week of January.

APVAJ- Apple Jan 150 call. The stocks seems to have run out of buyers at this level and needs to consolidate the recent gains before going higher.  $200 is psychological support for now.

AUY - Yamana Gold has been marking time after a recent breakout.  Earning due November 3rd.

C - The 25-top paid executives at Citi are going to have their pay cut by as much as 50% according to the government pay czar.  This is yet another blow to free market-capitalism, but with the political climate being what it is, nobody feels too sorry for these highly-paid bank execs.   On the technical side, the stock is above the weekly range bands, and still hanging above the lower range band on the daily range bands.

DIA - Down about a buck on this position, but sticking with it for general market exposure.

EEM - Emerging Markets ETF.  Daily and weekly range bands pointing upward, sticking with it for now.

HMSY - Earnings due this Friday October 30th, so we have to watch this one carefully.  Could be an opportunity to double-down on a sell-off.

KO - Stock is coming down against the lower range band.  Red bars greater than green bars this past week.

MYRX - Myraid Pharmaceuticals.  Some news came out last Friday: "Myriad Pharma's Azixa is efficacious in a model of human brain cancer and its activity is additive with Avastin."  Stock is hanging above upper daily upper range band.

NEOG - Stock is moving up quietly and is about to break above the upper range band once again.  Probably a good add-to at this point

SPY - Well in the money on this one for now and sticking with it.  As I said in my weekly update, I think its a forgone conclusion stocks will be higher at the end of the year.

SXCI - Stock is now #3 on the IBD-100 and has been on the IBD 100 since January 0f 2009.  Stock gave me a bit of a scare this week and pulled back to the breakout point at 47.50.  Red bars bigger than green bars this past week.   Earnings due out before the market open on November 5th.  No news this past week.

USO - Oil cooled off a big this week, but still above both the upper and lower range bands.

XLB - Select Materials ETF.  Red bars bigger than green bars this past week.

YUM - Cramer complained about YUM's earnings.  Sure same-store sales are flat in the US, but the company is firing on all cylinders in China

 

 

 

CD Listing

Taxable

WASHINGTON MUT BK FA STOCKTON CA CD FDIC INSURED TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/02/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

DISCOVER BK GREENWOOD DEL C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/16/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

Have a great week!

Weekly Update - 10/24/2009

AAPL was my big winner on the week. 

After a brusing year of taking losses, I finally got a break by being long 100 shares of AAPL into earnings.  With my cost at 186, I was nervous going into earnings and nearly took a small profit when it closed Monday at 190.  But my buddy Anthony reminded me that every time he goes to the Apple store, the place is packed. 

Well the rest is history and AAPL gapped up over 12 points and closed the week at a new all-time high of 203.94.   After Jim Cramer of CNBC's Mad Money upped his price target to $300 a share, I doubled down down and picked up 1 contract of the Apple January 150 call in each account at 55.20.  With this trade, I have the same upside (and downside) as buying another 100 shares in each account at about a quarter of the cost. 

The rest of the market was a bit of a mixed bag with the DJ-30 closing alternately above and below the 10,000 mark but in the end closed just a hair below 10,000 at 9972. IBD switched their market outlook to "Uptrend under pressure" due to a growing number of distribution days.

On Monday, I picked up 100 DIA in each account at about 100.80.  This was an effort to increase my general market exposure to good quality companies.  With the kind of year the markets have had, both hedge funds and mutual funds are going to be under a lot of pressure to stay fully invested into their year ends.  So its seems like a forgone conclusion at this point that the market will be higher at year end than it is now.

Also on Monday, I picked up 100 shares of HMSY in each account at about 42.35.  I saw a cup with a handle forming and HMSY is now positive on both the daily and weekly range bands.

On the development side, I'm checking out demos of Interactive Brokers Web and Java-based platforms.  I've spend almost $4000 of commissions with E*Trade this year and if I used Interactive brokers, that would have been about $400.  I could think if a lot of better things to do with the other $3600!

Thanks all for now, have a great Saturday and stay tuned for the positions update.

 

Positions Update

ABVT - Holding onto recent gains and is marking time for the 2x1 split which is due Monday AM.  I woke up Saturday to see last trade a $0 and a big hole in my account.  I'm sure they will resolve this Monday and credit me for the new shares.  Up almost $10 since my recent entry at $85.

C - Already covered in my weekly update.  Stock has been volume leader on the NYSE almost every day this week.  There was also a comment circulating on Twitter that this stock has 5.5B shares outstanding an 86K shares outstanding short interest.  Less than 1% short interests is pretty low indicating the shorts are almost totally out of this stock.  Cost at $3.97 so i'm up nicely.

LFT - Earnings came out this week and disappointed. The stocks sold off hard but found support at about 24.50.  Stock clearly blew through my supposed stop at 29 on a large gap on Monday.  The sell-off also brought in supporter Goldman Sachs who raised their target price to $34.

MYRX - No news this past week for the spin-off from Myriad Genetics.

NEOG - Earnings came out Friday and stock bounced nicely off the low at $27.  Need to listen to the call.

QCOM - Bounced off the lower rance band as shown in the chart above.  It was a good week for telecomm stocks and QCOM is clearly a part of Jim Cramer's mobile internet cohort.

SXCI - Stock has been up, up and away since the huge gap-up back on 8/6/2009.  Stock might be in what IBD calls a 'Climax Run' where it doubles withing a 6-week period.  If that's the case, we could see $60 within about 4 weeks.  Also been watching IBD 100 name Catalyst Hearth (CHSI) which is also provides Pharmacy Benefit Management (PBM) services.  One half of my position got called away at $30 and i'm looking to reload this coming week.

USO - Oil had a nice run this week as Oil futures hit a new high for the year.  The start of the North American Hurricane season has observers on edge also since the geo-political risk seems muted.

YUM - Bounced off the bottom of the range bands this week in a very similar fashion to QCOM.  UBS cut YUM from "buy" to "neutral" back on 8/11/2009.  I'm sticking with it.

CMGIA/CMGIT - This is the Sept 100/105 call spread entered for $1.5.  Stock found some support at $85 and is once again asserting some upward bias.  Sticking with it but its going to take a pretty signficant move to get this position back into the money.

CD Listing - Now sorted by expiration

Taxable

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL 5.10% 09/08/2009

WASHINGTON MUT BK FA STOCKTON CA CD FDIC INSURED TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/02/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

1ST COMM BK NORTH LAS VEGAS  5.15%  08/28/2009

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

Positions Update

Leading off with the Options Express account again.  This past Monday I closed out my RIMM August 70-75 call spread for a profit of $92.   For an investment of $218, this was a pretty good percentage profit. My other 2 positions are going into the red however.

CMGIA/CMGIT - This is the CMG Sept 100/105 call spread entered for a debit of 1.5.  This position has a max profit of $350 and a max loss of $150.  Stock sold off hard and closed at 87.95, close to the 50-day Moving Average.  

At this point the position looks like a loser, so I'm just going to let it ride.  I could close out the (profitable) short 105 call, but that's only going to increase my max loss from $150 to $175.  Of course, it would leave me long the 100 call, but that looks like it will go out worthless.  Of course, September is a long way off and a lot could happen.

CQNHM/CQNHN - CERN August 65-70 call spread I put on 3 weeks back for a debit of $180 with max profit of $320.  The August short 70 call is at 10 cents, so i'm likely to close out the short call and go naked long the 65 call with only 5 days left, its a roll of the dice, but I can do so by adding only $10 to the max loss on the trade. 

Now back to E*Trade.

ABVT - Stocks is pretty well extended to the upside.  2 for 1 split due this Thursday and I expect to cool off after the split.

C - has been getting a lot of press lately and is apparently in play by a number of hedge funds to the upside.  Word is that Hedge Fund manager Eddie Lambert is long 19 million shares.  I just got the shareholder info and a reverse split is in the cards.

LFT - This IBD-100 name has earnings due on Tuesday.  IBD indicates "Breakout stalls after 1st day - but remains above the 29.38 buy point."  Sticking with it an holding on tight through earnings.  Stop loss not far below, however.

MYRX - Zero cost leftover from MYGN debacle. Not much doing this week.

NEOG - Stock action is looking sloppy With cost at $15.50 in my retirement account, and $22 in my taxable account, I may take profits this coming week.

QCOM - Marking time right here at the 50-day moving average.  Part of Cramer's Wireless Internet build-out cohort, so i'm sticking with it.  With strikes at every $, I may sell and out of the money August call if we get a strong day this week.  We ususally get one strong upside day the week of option expiration, so I will be looking to sell calls on that rally.

SXCI - Stock moved from 38 to 41 this week which was a bit of a pleasant surprise after last week's 30% gap upward.  Sticking with my long

USO - Stock sold off hard on Friday and appears be topping here.  Looking to add a longside hedge if we get a high-volume rally day this coming week.

YUM - Had a high-volume distribution day on Tuesday when it got downgraded by UBS.  Will also look to sell an out of the money call on half of position on any type of rally this week.

XZQHF/XZQTF - This is the zero cost collar I put on on half my position for even money.  The good news is I get to sell half my position in SXCI at a small profit.  The bad news is that if I had done nothing,  I would be up an extra $1000 per account.  So i'm going to just let them have half my position in SXCI for a small profit and move on.

 

CD Listing - Now sorted by expiration

Taxable

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL 5.10% 09/08/2009

WASHINGTON MUT BK FA STOCKTON CA CD FDIC INSURED TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/02/2009

 

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BK TOMAH WIS C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.25% 07/12/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

1ST COMM BK NORTH LAS VEGAS  5.15%  08/28/2009

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

Positions Review

Leading again this week with the Options Express account.  OX is growing on me since they cut my comissions and I haven't funded the Think or Swim account yet.

CQNHM/CQNHN - This is the CERN August 65-70 call spread I put on 2 weeks back for a debit of $180 with max profit of $320.  Checking the chart on the left, up volume continues to outpace down volume, so i'm sticking with it.

RFYHN/RFYHT - This is the RIMM August 70-75 call spread that I put on for a debit of $218 with a max profit of $282.  All we need is a close above $75 on August expiry and I make the maximum profit on this position

Now back to E*Trade....

C - Citi shows some signs of life this week as they completed their preferred to common conversion.  Also some big index buying came in on Friday according to CNBC.  Sticking with it.

DIA - Long 1 lot in my retirement account.  The broad indices are clearly under-represented in my account.

MFE - Already covered in my weekly update.  Watching for signs of distribution and possible add-to on a pullback.  Stock dropped out of the IBD 100 this week which is a warning sign.

MYRX - Up slightly this week.  This is a zero-cost basis leftover from the MYGN debacle.

NEOG - Added another lot this week when the stock broke above 30 after weeks of consolidation.  Stock fell back, so it may have been a false breakout.

QCOM - Some low-volume distribution going on according to the chart on the left. With options at every strike, I can now sell the 46 collar (and below) for a credit. Options activity was dominated by the 44 puts which traded over 4000 contracts on Friday.  There's an option trade here somewhere, more to come.

SXCI - Stock recovered from a pullback to 28 to close around 29.50. No news this week, earnings before market hours this coming Thursday.

USO - broke the 28-bar range bands to the upside on Friday so i'm sticking with my long.

YUM - Addition of lot in my retirement account 2 weeks back at 44 was a good move as the stock closed Friday at 35.46.   Stock is petering out here, so it may be time to see some calls or perhaps a call spread.

My CD "WASHINGTON MUT BK HENDERSON NEV C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS DUE 07/31/2009 5.150" came due on Saturday, so i'm looking to reload next week on something that pays 5%.

CD Listing

Taxable

FEDERAL TR BK FSB SANFORD FLA  5.40% 08/11/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL 5.10% 09/08/2009

WASHINGTON MUT BK FA STOCKTON CA CD FDIC INSURED TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/02/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

1ST COMM BK NORTH LAS VEGAS  5.15%  08/28/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Weekly Update - 7/31/2009

Overall 24% cash, 53% high-yield CD's and 22% stocks.  The market continued to push higher this week leaving me further behind the indexers and asset allocators.  But nearly everything I did worked out this week and you have to be grateful for that.  Also, i'm learing to trade around earnings instead of being blindsided like I have in the past.

BTW, you can follow my updates on Twitter at https://twitter.com/tcxmon.

On Wednesday, I picked up 2 of the DIS Aug 26-24 put spread for a debit of 0.60. This position cost $120 with a max profit of $240.  I got this idea from the Options Action TV show on CNBC.  Earnings came out Friday and the stock sold off.  I closed the position for $160 for a small profit.    I did this trade in my Options Express account where spread trading is a breeze. The same position in E*Trade would be a chore to complete.

On Thursday, my old friend NEOG broke above resistance at $30.  I picked up 1 lot in each account for about 30.25.  This may have turned out to be a false breakout as the stock closed the week at 29.15.  I've been a stockholder for many years and I believe in this company.  Also, up volume has been exceeding down volume, so this is possible a cup-with-a-handle in the making.

The winner of the week was McAfee.  Having paid $41.95, I tried to sell the 45 collar (short 45 call, long 45 put) for even money ahead of earnings.  I didn't get a fill, but came within 15 cents.  Anyway, the stock sold off hard after earnings to 42.5.  But then it came roaring back on Friday and even made a new intraday 10-year high!

McAfee is firing on all cylinders.  If you listen to a single earnings call this week, listen to this one at at https://investor.mcafee.com/events.cfm.  The company had double-digit growth rates in both its consumer and corporate business with profit margins in the 80% range.  Smoking!  Also, and increasing number of high-profile network attacks and cyberterrorism puts this company in the right place at the right time.  Staying long for now but watching for signs of distribution.

Recall that last week I sold my position in HMSY.  This was a good move as the stock got whacked when earnings came out on Friday.   I took the opportunity and bought 100 shares in my retirement account at 37.80 and 100 in my taxable account at 38.20.  The stock moved up right away so I took profits and bagged $75 in my retirement account and $125 in my retirement account on a day-trade.

Here's some of what i've learned this year - don't be afraid to take a profit on signs of distribution, especially ahead of earnings.  Also, don't be afraid to take a small profit when they present themselves.  I've seen many good profits turn into nasty losses this year and could have avoided the MYGN debacle had I observed these rules.

Have a great week.

Positions Update

I'm doing my Options Express account positions first this week since i'm firing on all cylinders in that account.

CQNHM/CQNHN - This is the CERN August 65-70 call spread I put on last week for a debit of $180 with max profit of $320.  CERN had a good move this week and up volume has been swamping down volume as shown in the chart on the left.  Earnings due out this Wednesday 11/29 after the close.

RFYHN/RFYHT - This is the RIMM August 70-75 call spread that I put on for a debit of $218 with a max profit of $282.  This position has been working out well, but as I found out last week, I don't get to make the max profit (even though the stock is above 75) until much closer to expiration due to the extra premium present in 75 short call.

Now back to E*Trade....

C - This stock is a looser, but for some reason, I feel compelled to hold onto it.

DIA - Long 1 lot in my retirement account.  The broad indices are clearly under-represented in my account.

MFE - This is a recent winner picked up from my weekly scan of the IBD 100.   I'm up about 2 points on this since entry and earnings are due out during market hours this Thursday.   I may put on the 45 collar (long 45-put, short 45 call) if I can do so for a credit heading into earnings.

MYRX - Stock had a pretty-decent week up 7%.  This is a zero-cost basis leftover from the MYGN debacle.

NEOG - Earnings came out this past week, revenues rose 14% versus the same quarter last year.  Gross margins almost 50%.  CEO says.. "We continue to see a world of opportunity ahead for us, and we will continue to execute the growth strategies necessary to seize the opportunities." Sticking with it.

QCOM - This stock got a double-whammy of bad news this week.  First earnings came out  below expectations and second, South Korea hit QCOM with a 200 million plus fine for anti-competitive practices.   With all that, the stock only sold off 2% from its recovery high.   But you can't keep a good stock down, and QCOM is a long-term winner.

SXCI - Stock made a new recovery high this week.  IBD says "10% extended past 26.99 buy pt from pullback to 10-wk."  No news this week, earnings due 8/7/2009.

USO - broke the 200-day moving average to the upside this past week as shown on the left.  Seasonal tendencies are for it to peak in the next week or so, so i'm staying long and looking for a topping pattern to hedge my long.

YUM - Picked up another lot in my retirement account this week as YUM appears to be bumping along the bottom of a channel.

 

 

  

 

CD Listing

Taxable

FEDERAL TR BK FSB SANFORD FLA  5.40% 08/11/2009

FIRST MERCHANTS BK N A MUNCIE IND  5.30% 7/20/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL 5.10% 09/08/2009

WASHINGTON MUT BK FA STOCKTON CA CD FDIC INSURED TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/02/2009

WASHINGTON MT BK HENDERSON NEV 5.15% 07/31/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

Retirement

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

1ST COMM BK NORTH LAS VEGAS  5.15%  08/28/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.60% 07/21/2010

 

Weekly Update - 7/24/2009

Overall 79% cash and equivalents and 21% stocks. The broader market pushed higher this week defying the bears and my high cash position.

So for now i'm seriously under-performing the SP-500 on the year.  But all is not lost since I still have the majority of my capital and my sanity.  In trading and in life, when things are working for you, you keep doing those things. When things are not working, you do less of those things. 

In trading terms, that means when you are loosing money, the answer is to get small and trade smaller amounts until you regain your technique.  Once the technique has been re-validated, you can scale up and add size to get back to where you need to be.  For me that means keep the large part of the portfolio in high-yielding CD's and use the remaining poistion to take smarter, smaller and more concentrated positions using options and small equity positions.

Along those lines,  on Tuesday I took all they were offering of "GMAC Automotive Bk Midvale Utah C/D FDIC INS to Limits 5.60% 07/21/2010".   I'm now fully-loaded in CD's and have still have about 25% free cash in each account available for investing and trading.  As you can see from my CD listing on my positions update, all my CD's yield over 5%.  So don't settle for CD's paying less than 5%.  Just keep the size to under 250K and you will be 100% FDIC insured.

My only other trades for the week were as follows.  On Thursday  I bailed out of all of my HMSY seeing some weakness in the chart.  Note on the chart on the left how volume has been trailing off and was highter on Thursday's down day than it was in the prior 2 weeks.  I'm anticipating a top building here and expect I can get in at a lower price going forward.  Earnings are due out before the open this coming Friday and i'm expecting this to run up ahead of earnings and sell off like everything else has done lately.  Also, I had a profit in all legs of this position and wanted to take it.  I've seen plenty of winners become loosers this year and didnt want to let it happen yet again.

The other trade was adding 1 lot of YUM at 34 in my retirement account.  YUM has been bouncing along the bottom of the channel and despite the high volume in the sell-off after earnings, I like the company and its prospects going forward.

More to come in the positions update.

 

Positions Update

USO/UBOGL - USO found a bottom at about 32 this past week and started to work its way higher.   UBOGL (July 28 call) went out worthless which netted $120 per account.  Seasonal trend is for oil to head lower as of end of July and make a low in Feb 2010.   For now will be content to stay long as an inflation hedge and sell calls on a rally to collect premium.

QAQGO/QAQSL - These are the Apollo 65 put 75 call combo that I bought as part of an Iron Condor in APOL which went out worthless on Friday.  I already netted $420 by closing out the short legs of this trade.  I lost $250 on these 2 legs, so I netted $170 total.  Could have made $300 had I let this trade run to completion.

YUM - Earnings came out and did not dissapoint.  Did nothing on the options side.  Noticed however that at one point on Tuesday, I could have sold the July 36 call and bought the July 36 put for zero cost.  Had I put on this trade, I could have netted $240 per contract and still kept my stock.  Something to keep in mind for future earnings releases when stock rallies into the earnings announcement.

SXCI - IBD says "Up 6% from 26.99 buy point from pullback to 10-week line."  Earnings due out August 7 and IBD indicates "Analyst expect 4% drop in EPS after strong accelerating trend."  Need to be vigilant for a potential top coming up into earnings.  Volume on up days has been crushing volume on down days lately, so we are good for the time being.   Added some this past week at 28.20.

RFYHN/RFYHT - RIMM August 75-70 call spread entered for a debit of $2.18.   If RIMM has a close above 75 this week, the position should reach max profitability.  Unclear on whether this will occur whenever RIMM closes above 75 or only on expiration.  Will learn from this position.

QCOM - Earnings due out this Wednesday after the close and stock has rallied nicely at a new high since the 2008 top.  At this point, the 46 or 47 collar can be entered for a credit.  Unlikely to do anything this week since i'll be away on vacation.

NEOG - Stock seems to have found some resistance at 30 here.   Earning due before the open on Tuesday.  No options are available here and i'm unlikely to do anything going into earnings.

MYRX - Zero-cost mustard seed left over from Myriad Genetics debacle.

MFE - Stock is at a new 10-year high and looking like a winner.  For the second week running, IBD has a black-square around this chart indicating its still in a good buying position.  Long 1 lot in each account and sticking with it.  Earnings due out on July 30 during market hours.

One distribution day in MFE on Thursday on higher volume.

HMSY - Up nicely on this position.  Earnings due out on July 31 before market open.

C - Earnings came out this week.  Citi is still a sick pup and managed to show a profit only because of a large one-time gain by the Smith Barney / Morgan Stanley joint venture.  It had a good rally off the lows and considering it was $2.60 last week, it had a decent rally off the low.

CQNHM/CQNHN - This is the Cerner August 65-70 call spread.   I paid $160 for this and it doesn't look too promising.

CD Listing

Taxable

FEDERAL TR BK FSB SANFORD FLA  5.40% 08/11/2009

FIRST MERCHANTS BK N A MUNCIE IND  5.30% 7/20/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40%  06/21/2010

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL 5.10% 09/08/2009

WASHINGTON MUT BK FA STOCKTON CA CD FDIC INSURED TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/02/2009

WASHINGTON MT BK HENDERSON NEV 5.15% 07/31/2009

Retirement

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

1ST COMM BK NORTH LAS VEGAS  5.15%  08/28/2009

GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010

RG PREMIER BK HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2010

Have a great week.

Weekly Update - 7/17/2009

Overall 77% Cash and CDs and 23% stocks.  Stocks position up slightly due to addition of more SXCI.  Also added some call spreads in RIMM and CERN.

Some of my favorite stocks had good up moves this week including QCOM, SXCI, HMSY, NEOG and MFE.  More in the positions summary, for now the week in review.

I kept my promise to go CD shopping and on Tuesday bought a large chunk of "RG PREMIER BK P R HATO REY C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.45% 07/30/2009" for my retirement account.  On Wednesday, I bought a sizable chunk of "WASHINGTON MUT BK FA STOCKTON CA CD FDIC INSURED TO LIMITS 5.05% 11/02/2009" for my taxable account.   

On Wednesday, I also picked up another lot of SXCI in both my retirement and taxable accounts.  The stock recently broke above the resistance area at 27.  Checking the chart of up the left, volume up on days has been swamping volume on the down days, and the stock wants to revisit its old high at 31.95.  Also, on Friday SXCI announced a 3 year deal to provide PBM services for the state of Ohio.  More on SXCI when we get to the positions summary.

Thursday came along and took all they were offering of "GMAC AUTOMOTIVE BK MIDVALE UTAH C/D FDIC INS TO LIMITS 5.40% 06/21/2010" by purchasing equal lots in each account.

My old friend RIMM broke the range bands to the upside on Wednesday.  Having been burned by the stock so many times this year, I bought the 70-75 call spread for a debit of 2.18.  Max gain is $280 on a close above 75, max loss is $218 plus commissions.

I made a simlar trade in CERN.  After entering CERN 2 weeks back and getting stopped out on the IBD 7% down rule last week, CERN came roaring back.  I picked up the 65-70 call spread for $1.60.  On a close above $70 max gain is $338, with max is the $160 debit paid to enter the trade.

I did the 2 call spreads in my (newly re-funded) Options Express account.  Recall from 2 weeks ago took my APOL condor trade to E*Trade because OX wanted almost $60 for a 4-leg option trade!   Well I called the guys at Options Express and told them I was going to take my business over to Think or Swim.  I didn't hear anything back from them until a few days later when they told me they would reduce my commissions to $1.95 a contract or $10 per leg, whichever was greater.   After the 2 trades, I realized they charged me $12.95 for a 2-leg trade which is better than they promisied and equal to E*Trade!   Bottom line - if your broker's commissions aren't good enough - call them up they will drop them for you!

In the meantime I went ahead and opened a Think or Swim account.  Their platform is amazing and a bit intimidating.  In fact, after navigating around it for a while, I appreciated the Options Express web-based platform.  I seem to be able to find my way around there more easily. 

Think or Swim is still pretty cool.  They have this "My-Trade" feature where you can see what their other users are doing and/or recommending.  Its a constant stream of new Option Trading ideas.  You can put the trades on using their "Paper Money" application to see how they work out.  Options are an amazing investment vehicle and I think i'm somewhere between beginner and intermediate. I used the Paper Money feature to put on 2 trades:

Short 100 shares both FAS and FAS.  Idea being they are chronic loosers and both underperform due to the costs inherent in portfolio construction.  When one is +2.85%, the other is -3.0%.  Should be interesting to see how this works out.

Second was a Calendar Spread in AAPL.  Bought 1 October 140 call and sold the August 140 call.  I don't fully understand the implications of calendars, so this trade should be a good education experience.

Enjoy your weekend.

 

Positions review

Doing positions in reverse order this week.

USO/UBOGL - Check out the way the 12-bar range bands trading system have completely crushed buy-and-hold when trading USO.  I took the sell signal back on 6/22 to take off half of my USO position.  I protected the other half by selling a July 38 call for $1.20 which will go out worthless.  So at this point, i'm down about $400 on the USO, but will make some money on the short call.

I owe you all a post with a range bands manifesto.  I've been doing some work with Backscanner and have some interesting results to report.  More on that later today if I have time

QAQGO/QAQSL - These are the Apollo 65 put 75 call combo that I bought as part of an Iron Condor in APOL.  I already netted $420 by closing out the short legs of this trade, so now i'm content to hold these until this Friday's expiration.   With only 0.05 and 0.18 left its not worth the commisson to close these out anyway.

YUM - Earning are due out after the close on Tuesday.  With my cost in the low 29's, i'm up about $1000 on this position.  Now I can either a) Sell stock and take profit b) Sell 35 call against position c) Buy protective put, d) Collar the gains by selling call and buying put or e) Do nothing.

I took and look and here's what I came up with.  Sell the July 34 calls at 1.40 and buy the July 35 Put at 1.0.  This positions costs me a credit of 0.4 and i'm covered from 1x1 from 34 south.  If the stock rallies,  I sell at 34 and I can live with that.  If the stock sells off I can close the long puts for a profit, the short call expires worthless and I get to keep the stock.

SXCI - Stock made a new all-time closing high on Thursday.  Stock is extended way beyond 50 and 200 day moving averages and is vulnerabily to a decline.  But making a new high is an important technical event and cannot be ignored.  Besides, there are no options on this stock, so its either sell or stick with it.   Several analysts raised targets, one as high as 29.  This stock is an add-to on a decline.  IBD agrees:  "In possible buy range after visit to 10-week line.

QCOM - Stock has been flat to down 8 of the last 10 days and down volume is exceeding up volume.  Even so, its oversold short terms and may find support at the 50-day MA.

NEOG - Stock is taking a rest after  a recent run.  I've been with this company since 2007 and up about 30% on the position.

MYRX - A leftover from the MYGN debacle, mustard seed with zero cost basis.

 

MFE - IBD has a black square around this which means the they its in buying range. Their comment: "Cleared buy point at 40.99 then eaed under it.  Next few days will be telling.

HMSY - IBD says "Climbed 10% after clearing 38.8 buy point, dips in Soft Trade" 

C - This is a stinky loosing position down 27%, don't know why i'm sticking with this position and it needs to be cut.

 

In the interest of self-awareness, I decided to list out my CD's also:

Taxable

FEDERAL TR BK FSB SANFORD FLA  5.40% 08/11/2009

FIRST MERCHANTS BK N A MUNCIE IND  5.30% 7/20/2009

LEHMAN BROS FSB WILMINGTON DEL 5.10% 09/08/2009

WASHINGTON MT BK HENDERSON NEV 5.15% 07/31/2009

Retirement

AMCORE BK N A ROCKFORK ILL  5.0% 11/16/2009

1ST COMM BK NORTH LAS VEGAS  5.15%  08/28/2009

WASHINGTON MU BK HENDERSON NEV 4.05% 07/17/2009

I need to do some serious CD shopping this week.  As I said in my weekly update, if you go out as far as 7/2010,  you can get yields up to 5.6%

 

 

 

Positions Update

AIG - has reduced its debt to the federal government from $173 billion to $127 billion.  The company got approval from the Fed to retire another 25 billion in exchange for ownership of more insurance subsidiaries.  Estimates in January put the entire value of AIG's holdings at $225 billion so when all is said and done there should be 100 billion worth of businesses here once the government is fully paid off.  Its going to take some time.  Shareholder meeting coming up Tuesday 6/30.

C - Nothing exciting happening here, just slowly rebuilding the business and cleaning house.

FAS - Showing some signs of life on Friday after recent weakness

HMSY - Stock quietly closed at a new all-time high on Friday on good volume.  IBD indicates 100 technical summary: "Up 7% from 38.10 handle in base-on-base pattern. "  This was is part of the Russell 3000 so the late day buying may be part of the annual rebalancing that took place on Friday's close.  Either way, it has all the makings of a winner, part of IBD 100, new all time high, great earnings, great fundamental story.  Okay enough already.

MYGN - This stocks is a roller-coaster and on Friday was down 2.90.  Since i'm long 500 shares that's almost a $1500 hit in each account.  Ouch!  Waiting for the Myriad Pharma spin-off which is due to be paid on 6/30.    Once that pays i'll consider taking some off the table.

MYRG - After a nasty sell-off back to below $19, my entire position went into the red.  Then we had a good rally along with Friday's incredible volume after the close (see Weekly Update).  I'm looking for a rally above $22 then i'm going to sell half my position.

NEOG - This stock has been on an incredible run and i'm expecting it to shortly take out its all-time high at $32. 

QCOM - Another great stock which is going to be an add-to under $45.

SH - Last weeks long entry is under pressure as we approach end of quarter window dressing.

SXCI - Another great stock with a great pattern. Price at all time high and it hitting on all cylinders!

USO/USOGL - Oil is looking toppy here and i'm long 100 shares at 36.5 and short the July 38 call at 1.2.  

YUM - IBD did a great article on this company in this week's Monday edition.  Thinking about buying some stock and selling calls, but the $35 call is trading at 40 cents so its hardly worth it.

 

 

Weekly Update - 6/27/2009

Overall 30% stocks, 70% cash and equivalents.  Stocks position up slightly since last week due to an entry in SH and and exit in USO.

Some very interesting activity in MYRG after the close on Friday.   This stock has trade at most 500K shares per day.  It was on pace Friday for an active day then after the close a single block of 1.1MM shares crossed the tape on a huge apparent "Market on Close" order.  Then after that, another 2.55 MM shares or so crossed the tape, split pretty evenly between the bid and the offer.  Someone is doing some massive accumulation or distribution in this stock.  IBD shows 16.2 Million shares outstanding so about 3% of the float of this company traded after hours on no news.   I read in IBD that there was some Russell funds rebalancing.  I checked and could not find MYRG in any of the Russell 1000, 2000 or 3000.

USO crossed the lower range band to the downside on Monday.  I took this an opportunity to take profits on the shares I bought back in early March in the low 29's.  That turned out to be low point for the week as USO ground higher from there.   I took the mid-week rally as a chance to sell some July 38 calls at 1.2 on the other half of my position.   I'm expecting a seasonal high at at the end of July and having paid 36.5 a sale at 38 plus 1.2 points premium would be a decent outcome. 

I'm feeling some pressure to take some profits as I am underperforming the S&P 500 in both accounts.  As of Friday, S&P 500 is up 1.73% for the year.  My retirement account is down 2.5% for the year and my taxable account is down almost 5% for the year.  I have a fair amount  of CD income in the pipeline which will help somewhat.

Here's my strategy for the rest of the year:

- Increase stocks position to closer to 50% as my CD's come due

- Scrub the IBD 100 each week and buy winning stocks with good chart patterns.  This method has yielded some good winners such as HMSY, SXCI, MYGN and MYRG.

- Add to winners when they are working (think NEOG)

- Take larger and more concentrated positions on stocks displaying good price action.

Enjoy your weekend.

Positions Update

AIG - I received the notice for the upcoming shareholder meeting and they are planning a 1 for 20 reverse split, so my 2000 shares will become 100 and will price the stock at about $30.  I'm not sure this is a good thing because the stock will just have farther to drop!   Reuters research has this stock at "Outperform" based on valuation and I agree.  Much as we all love to hate this company, there are many profitable businesses buried inside.

C - Dick Bove from Rochdale securities issued a "buy" with a price target of $12.  That will be a hefty profit for me at some point in the future, now all I have to do is wait for it.  As I pointed out back when I bought it, the government is taking all the downside and giving the upside to the shareholders.

FAS - Stock peeked above its rising 50-day moving average on Friday and is recovering from a recent sell-off.  With entry in the low 11's i'm down on this position.

HMSY - was my big winner for the week and I already covered it in my weekly update.  Stock had a convicing breakout on Tuesday, then had 2 inside days on lower (but still positive volume).  Then it had another rollicking breakout on Friday and moved into new all-time high territory.  New all-time high is one of my favorite self-fullfilling technical indicators because it tends to bring in the momentum players.  This week's IBD still flags it as a buy because its only 4% extended from the buy point at 38.38.  Stock has a history of pulling back after big moves, so while volume has been monster, a rest is clearly in order.

MYGN - Stock had a nasty 2 day sell-off earlier in the week on low volume, but nearly made it all back by the end of the week.  Waiting for spin-off of Myraid Pharmaceuticals which will trade under ticket MYGX and is expected on 6/30/2009.

MYRG - Already covered in my weekly update.  Looking to unload half my position above $22 and reload at under $21.

NEOG - Checkout the move this small-cap maker of food and animal safety product had on Friday.  The stock broke out to a new high for the year on Friday on the largest volume seen since January.  The only news I could find was 2 brokerages who cut the shares to "Neutral" from "Buy" this past week.  The recent deal with the Chinese government is still being factored into the shares.

QCOM - Stock rebounded nicely on higher volume after a nasty sell-off on Monday and Tuesday.  Looking to add more shares on weakness as this stock in a winner and likely headed higher.  QCOM is a great way to play the "smartphone" wireless Internet story which is a great macro theme trumpeted by Jim Cramer of CNBC's Mad Money.

SXCI - No news this week.  IBD-100 technical blurb: "Extended 14% from 22.60 buy point in short pattern".  Fundamental blurb: "Earnings growth ranged from 41% to 138% the past 4 quarters."

usorolloverUSO - appears to be rolling over here. Seasonal high is expected at the end of July, so i'm expecting one more push higher before the high of the year.  Time to start thinking about taking profits though. 

YUM - No news this week except a bear fund has shorted it.  Sticking with it.  

Cut your losers and let your profits run, that's my mantra.

 

Weekly Update - 6/19/2009

Overall 30% stocks, 70% cash and equivalents.  Stocks position down 3% from last week due to shakeout in RIMM.  With the broader market rolling over, it was time to take some positions off the table and protect some recent gains.

With broader market weakness taking hold, I was no longer comfortable being long this 3X small cap bull fund.  Also, I got the prospectus for this and the related family of Direxion 3X funds and all over the prospectus the stressed the fact that these funds track the daily performance of the fund, but deviate over time.  In my case, I bought on 5/20 and sold on 6/15 for a small loss.  Had I bought IWR (iShares Russell ETF), I would have made 2.6% instead over the same time period.

RIMM broke the daily range bands to the downside at $77.89 on Wednesday 6/17. Note how the range bands went positive back on 3/17 at about $41.  So the range bands caught an incredible move here and gave a great exit signal as well!

Seeing the weakness, I sold my 100 shares in each account for a small profit on Monday 6/15.  I held my June 80 calls to the bitter end, however and lost $6.90 in each account on this position.  On the OptionsXpress side, I closed out the short side of my 85-90 call for a $205 profit.  I let the 85 call expire worthless and took at $282 loss on this position total.  That was $82 more than my planned maximum loss of $200, but I thought it was worth removing the $300 cap on profits in case the stock rallied after earnings.  That turned out to be a bust as the stock sell-off telegraphed the disappointing earnings announcement.

RIMM and TNA were my only disappointments on the week and it was all positive otherwise. 

Back to my new friend MYRG.  After rallying as high as $23.19 during the week it sold off back down to $21.  So it occurred to me that this is a good trading stock and that I could get in around $21 and out at about $22.  So I sold the 200 shares purchased for $21.05 at $21.75 for a $140 profit in each account.  Then I waited for a pullback and re-entered the same 200 shares at $21 in one account and $20.90 in the other.

myrgcupwithhandleOn the technical side, the stock is forming a nice cup-with-handle pattern.  The handle hasn't quite formed yet, but if it does, we could easily see a break up the $24.50 area.  The plan for next week is to sell the additional 200 I bought in each account on a pop above $22 and let the other 200 ride.  At this point, i'm long 400 shares in each account and up nicely on the first 200.

Next up is my new best friend HMSY.  I entered this stock recently below $35 and it's had a nice move up from there.  HMSY broke out decisively on Tuesday 6/16 with a move above the recent range.  I posted on the blog and picked up 100 shares in each account at 39.25.  On closer examination, I actually screwed up and bought 200 shares in my taxable account. Figuring my sub-concious new better. I picked up another 100 in my retirement account at 39.  After moving sideways for 2 days, it broke decisively higher on Friday on nice volume.  No fundamental news that I could find so this looks like just plain old accumulation. 

That's it for now.  I'm just going to keep playing my game - buying breakouts, cutting loosers and letting my profits run.  See you in the positions update.

HMSY

 

HMSY is breaking out big time.   No news that I could see.  Picked up another 100 in each account at about 39.25 early this afternoon.   Not sure what's going on, but could be a major player in the government's plans to create their own Health Care plan as a fallback to private insurance.   This company checks to make sure individuals are not already covered by another plan before paying.  IBD has a breakout buy at the 38.85 price point.

hmsybreakout

Positions review

AIG - Holding up fairly well since the daily range bands went negative back on 5/22/2009.  Sticking with it since its basically a call option with no expiration.   Overall i'm up in the taxable account and down slightly in the retirement account.

C - Not much is happening in this position since C got kicked out of the DJ-30.  Down about 40 cents per share on this.

FAS - Holding up fairly well - down slightly on this position in each account.

mygnsmallMYGN had an excellent week.  After the earnings sell-off, I was down almost $2000 in each account on this position, now up slightly.  Additional entries at $34.50 and $35.75 got me up to 500 shares in each account.  TSV has been leading price to the upside as TSV has made a new recovery high ahead of price.  Note the spin-off of Myriad Pharmaceuticals is expected by the end of June with 1 share of the spin-off for every 4 shares of MYGN.  So to keep things even, I should take profit on 100 shares of MYGN.

HMSY - Up nicely on this recent entry with cost just below $35.    Will add-to on a dip below $35, no news this past week.

MYRG had an interesting week.  After being up $500 in each account in just one week's time nearly all of my profit went away with Tuesday's sell-off.  But the stock came roaring back Wednesday and make another new all-time high before backing off on Thursday and Friday.  The only fly in the ointment now is volume which has been declining.  Also, volume on Friday's sell-off is the largest day of down volume in weeks.  No news this last week, so i'm considering this just profit-taking and sticking with it long term.  May take off half however if it gets back to $22.

NEOG - Another great looking chart, wish I had room for them all!  After last week's news about the deal with the Chinese government, its off and running.  Next stop $30.

QCOM - Cooling along with the rest of the Nasdaq 100 and volume on down days has been steadily increasing. Showing a nice profit here with entry just below 40.  The company increased its 3rd qurter guidance on Thursday and Friedman billings has a 12-month price target of $54.

RIMM - in a holding pattern ahead of earnings due out on Friday morning.   Long 100 shares in each account plus one June 80 call.  Up nicely on the stock, but slightly underwater on the calls.  Looking to take profit on the stock and either rollup to a high strike call or buy a protective put.  See the weekly update for more

SXCI - up nicely on this position with cost below $20.   No real news since May 20th, no options, no news to report, sticking with it.

TNA - up nicely on this broad-market play with entry at $27.82.

USO - up nicely on this position with entries at $29.20 and $32.85.  Sticking with it for now, letting profits run.

YUM found support right at the lower range band.  Like the rest of the market, volume has been declining recently.  Like I mentioned last week,  the Kentucky Grilled chicken seems to be well-received and hopefully will give a boost to this tired KFC franchise.  Up nicely on this position with cost just below $30. 

Positions Review

AAPL / RFYFP  - Long 100 in each account as well as 2 June 100 calls.  Stock continues to move up amid the developers conference coming up next week.  Also, got a high-profile analyst upgrade last week.  

Need to be careful with my APPL calls, because I got burned back in Feb when I let a good solid profit slip away due to simple lack of exit plan.   I'm going to put in a limit order to sell one of the 2 at 50 and let the other one ride.

AIG - Moving sideways, nothing much going on technically.  Slowly selling off assets to try and pay back the government.

C - CNBC is calling Citi a "Zombie Bank".  Its starting to look like a Zombie investment as well as the daily range bands are about to go negative and the price bumps up against the top tthe declining weekly range band.

FAS - Similar pattern to AIG and C, nothing much happening.  Perhaps financials have had their run.

HMSY - I'm up on this position after a recent entry at 34.90.  IBD 100 quick recap says "Still reaching for possible buy point in cup with high handle.  Sticking with it for now.

MYGN - Seems to have found some resistance at 38 after a nice run up from the low.  Getting ready to spin off 1 share of Myriad Pharmeceuticals for each share held.  Record date 6/17 pay date 6/30.

MYRG - This stock had quite a run and i'm up nicely on this IBD-100 pick.  On June 6th Deutsche securities started coverage with a buy rating and a price target of $27.

NEOG - Stock cleared recent resistance at 24 on news from 6/2 that NEOG is parterning with the Chinese government.   The Scotland-based office of NEOG will develop food and animal safety tests that will be replicate across 30 sites in China.  This is an awesome development for this small-cap animal and food safety play.

RIMM / RFYFP - Now long 100 shares in each account plus a June 80 call.  In the money nicely on the stock and coming into the money on the calls.

SXCI - This position is working out well and is firing on all cylinders and i'm up nicely.

TNA - Up nicely on this small position.

USO - Oil rally continues, expecting a seasonal high at the end July.

YUM - Based on my own family's experience, the Kentucky Grilled Chicken is a hit.  My wife would never allow the fried variety into the house due the sky-high carb content and its corresponding impact on my daughter's diabetes.   The grilled variety is essentially carb-free and the kids love it. 

Positons review

AIG - Stock is above rising 50-day PMA, but below 200 day declining PMA.  No news this week.

C - Similar situation as AIG in terms of of the technicals. Recent resistance is at $4.5 and the stock seems to be stuck in the recent range.

FAS - Financials seem to be cooling recently as attention starts to focus on other areas of the market. FAS seems to have found support at its 50 day PMA and is slowly rising.   Bear in mind FAS was in the 25 range at the beginning of this year, so considerable upside remains.

 

 

HMSY - New position this week, HMS had a nice orderly pullback from a recent high.  Already covered in my Weekly Update entry.

MYGN - Added to this position this week, looking for higher prices ahead.

NEOG - Coverage initiated with a buy recommendation this past week at Sidoti.  Never heard of these guys.

QCOM - Stock has recovered nicely from a recent selloff where it found support right at the intersection of the 50 day PMA (red) and 200-day (cyan) PMA.

RIMM - Now long 200 shares and short 1 June 80 call.   This stock could easily sell off sharply so back to 75.  Watch the price action, it will be telling.

 

SXCI - This stock finally had the breakout i've been looking for an i'm up nicely.  As IBD put it this weekend: "At a two-year high after clearing short cup-with-handle base."   Sticking with it.

TNA - Bought this for some general market exposure at $27.60.  It quickly sold off but has since recovered.   This stock was at 35 at the start of this year so considerable upside remains.

USO - Almost back in the money on my orginal entry, and up nicely on my second entry at $29.20.  Expect further upside action through the end of July which is typically the seasonal high.

YUM - Sunday night is Taco Bell night at my house.  Go YUM. Go Taco Bell!   Enjoy your weekend.